Orgryte IS 1-1 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Degerfors IF at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orgryte IS vs Degerfors IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Degerfors IF make the trip to Gamla Ullevi to face Orgryte IS in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Monday 27 April 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Orgryte IS have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Orgryte IS have played only a handful of Allsvenskan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Orgryte IS's home record at Gamla Ullevi: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Degerfors IF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Degerfors IF have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for Orgryte IS, 1.50 for Degerfors IF — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Orgryte IS register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Degerfors IF in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Orgryte IS lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2024, ended 1–3 with Degerfors IF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Orgryte IS — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games).
Degerfors IF — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Orgryte IS 66% and Degerfors IF 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 59% | Degerfors IF 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.04 xG and Degerfors IF 1.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 0.798 / defence 1.166 | Degerfors IF attack 1.214 / defence 0.866. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.370. Orgryte IS's attack strength of 0.798 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Degerfors IF have an above-average attack strength of 1.214 — the away xG of 1.94 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 4 Orgryte IS games / 34 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 19% | Draw 23% | Degerfors IF 57%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 5.26 | Draw 4.35 | Degerfors IF 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Degerfors IF (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Degerfors IF are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Orgryte IS 80% | Degerfors IF 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Monday 27 Apr 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 19% | Draw 23% | Degerfors IF 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 56% | xG Orgryte IS 1.04 / Degerfors IF 1.94 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 0.798 / def 1.166 | Degerfors IF attack 1.214 / def 0.866 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.370 • Poisson stance: Degerfors IF (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
1.94
Degerfors IF xG
56%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs Degerfors IF kick off?
Orgryte IS vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 27 April 2026 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs Degerfors IF?
Orgryte IS 1 - 1 Degerfors IF.
Where is Orgryte IS vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs Degerfors IF part of?
Orgryte IS vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 19% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 57% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Degerfors IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Orgryte IS and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Degerfors IF?
Record (2 meetings): Orgryte IS 0W | Draws 0 | Degerfors IF 2W.
What form are Orgryte IS and Degerfors IF in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Degerfors IF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Orgryte IS's attack at 0.80x the league average against Degerfors IF's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Degerfors IF's attack (1.21x) against Orgryte IS's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.94.
These ratings are built from 4/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Degerfors IF Win
19%
5.22
23%
4.26
57%
1.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
2.98
1.94
Degerfors IF xG
5.22
19%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
1.74
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
14%
6.95
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
3%
36.26
20%
4.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 9.8 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 1.94 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs Degerfors IF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Orgryte IS's recent record stands at 13W 9D 10L from 32 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Orgryte IS, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Degerfors IF, meanwhile, have gone 8W 7D 17L across 32 games — 0.97 PPG, with D-L-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Orgryte IS by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Degerfors IF heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Orgryte IS have managed 8W 3D 5L from 16 games — 1.69 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Degerfors IF's away record stands at 7W 2D 7L across 16 trips, a 1.44 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 0.97 PPG overall record — Degerfors IF travel well.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.09 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 32 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Early Season
Degerfors IF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 13W 9D 10L in their last 32 games (1.50 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 8W 7D 17L in their last 32 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or Degerfors IF away?
Orgryte IS's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.69 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Degerfors IF won 4-1 on 18 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Orgryte IS have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Orgryte IS
1
Draws
2
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Degerfors IF?
From 3 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 0, Degerfors IF have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Orgryte IS 1-1 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Orgryte IS and Degerfors IF?
Degerfors IF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Orgryte IS, 69% for Degerfors IF — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 81% for Orgryte IS and 75% for Degerfors IF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play Degerfors IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Orgryte IS's games and 69% of Degerfors IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orgryte IS vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 81% of Orgryte IS's matches and 75% of Degerfors IF's.
Do Orgryte IS and Degerfors IF tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 94% of their recent matches, Degerfors IF in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Orgryte IS and Degerfors IF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 5, as Orgryte IS and Degerfors IF drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.04 xG and Degerfors IF 1.94 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Degerfors IF landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 0.80 / defence 1.17 against Degerfors IF attack 1.21 / defence 0.87, drawn from 4/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 19% | Draw 23% | Degerfors IF 57%, with Degerfors IF to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 59%, Degerfors IF 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Orgryte IS arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.