IF Elfsborg 1-1 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Elfsborg at 56%, yet in-form AIK Stockholm provide a compelling counter-argument — this IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees AIK Stockholm travel to Borås Arena to take on IF Elfsborg. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 May 2026, 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IF Elfsborg have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.
In front of their own supporters this season, IF Elfsborg have posted 3W 2D 5L at Borås Arena — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — IF Elfsborg are significantly better at Borås Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AIK Stockholm stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, AIK Stockholm have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. AIK Stockholm's 1.40 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of IF Elfsborg's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for IF Elfsborg, 4 for AIK Stockholm and 1 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2025, ended 0–3 with AIK Stockholm winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
IF Elfsborg trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
AIK Stockholm trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 55% versus AIK Stockholm 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 65% | AIK Stockholm 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 2.05 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.166 / defence 0.895 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.995 / defence 1.139. League average goals — home 1.544 / away 1.354. Data: 35 IF Elfsborg games / 35 AIK Stockholm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 56% | Draw 24% | AIK Stockholm 21%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | AIK Stockholm 4.76. The model has a clear lean to IF Elfsborg (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.05 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IF Elfsborg at 56% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form AIK Stockholm (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.26 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: IF Elfsborg 60% | AIK Stockholm 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 56% | Draw 24% | AIK Stockholm 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 62% | xG IF Elfsborg 2.05 / AIK Stockholm 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.166 / def 0.895 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.995 / def 1.139 | league avg home 1.544 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
1.21
AIK Stockholm xG
62%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 3 May 2026 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm?
IF Elfsborg 1 - 1 AIK Stockholm.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm part of?
IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 56% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both IF Elfsborg and AIK Stockholm will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and AIK Stockholm?
Record (9 meetings): IF Elfsborg 4W | Draws 1 | AIK Stockholm 4W.
What form are IF Elfsborg and AIK Stockholm in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. AIK Stockholm (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates IF Elfsborg's attack at 1.17x the league average against AIK Stockholm's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 2.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, AIK Stockholm's attack versus IF Elfsborg's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
56%
1.80
24%
4.25
21%
4.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
3.26
1.21
AIK Stockholm xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
4.81
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
13%
7.77
Win to Nil
17%
6.00
3%
37.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 1.21 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, IF Elfsborg have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 25W 10D 25L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
AIK Stockholm's form line: 30W 12D 18L from 60 games, 1.70 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: IF Elfsborg on 1.42 PPG, AIK Stockholm on 1.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, IF Elfsborg have posted 1.80 PPG from 30 outings (16W 6D 8L).
On the road, AIK Stockholm have gone 13W 5D 12L from 30 away games — 1.47 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; AIK Stockholm are on 1.43 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: AIK Stockholm in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
AIK Stockholm
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and AIK Stockholm in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 25W 10D 25L in their last 60 games (1.42 PPG), while AIK Stockholm have gone 30W 12D 18L in their last 60 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or AIK Stockholm away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 1.80 PPG; AIK Stockholm away: 1.47 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or AIK Stockholm been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, AIK Stockholm in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IF Elfsborg and AIK Stockholm runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 May 2024, when IF Elfsborg won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IF Elfsborg's record when hosting AIK Stockholm specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
IF Elfsborg
2
Draws
4
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and AIK Stockholm?
From 10 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 4, AIK Stockholm have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when IF Elfsborg 1-1 AIK Stockholm.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Elfsborg 63%, AIK Stockholm 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for IF Elfsborg and 50% for AIK Stockholm. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play AIK Stockholm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of IF Elfsborg's games and 50% of AIK Stockholm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of IF Elfsborg's matches and 50% of AIK Stockholm's.
Do IF Elfsborg and AIK Stockholm tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, AIK Stockholm in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IF Elfsborg and AIK Stockholm share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 6, as IF Elfsborg and AIK Stockholm drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 2.05 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.21 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. IF Elfsborg fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.17 / defence 0.90 against AIK Stockholm attack 0.99 / defence 1.14, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 56% | Draw 24% | AIK Stockholm 21%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 65%, AIK Stockholm 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IF Elfsborg 1.42 PPG, AIK Stockholm 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.