AIK Stockholm 2-4 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AIK Stockholm at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AIK Stockholm vs Djurgardens IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AIK Stockholm host Djurgardens IF at Strawberry Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 10 May 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, AIK Stockholm have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
AIK Stockholm at Strawberry Arena this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Djurgardens IF — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Djurgardens IF away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Djurgardens IF's 2.10 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of AIK Stockholm's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of AIK Stockholm: 5 wins from 8 previous clashes against 1 for Djurgardens IF, with 2 draws across those contests.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.6 per contest from 8 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The historical record gives AIK Stockholm a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
AIK Stockholm in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Djurgardens IF in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AIK Stockholm 48% versus Djurgardens IF 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AIK Stockholm 50% | Djurgardens IF 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AIK Stockholm 1.19 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AIK Stockholm attack 0.860 / defence 0.839 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.042 / defence 0.881. League average goals — home 1.570 / away 1.333. Data: 36 AIK Stockholm games / 36 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 36% | Draw 29% | Djurgardens IF 35%. Fair-value odds: AIK Stockholm 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Djurgardens IF 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
AIK Stockholm dominate the H2H record, yet Djurgardens IF are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is AIK Stockholm at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Djurgardens IF (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AIK Stockholm offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: AIK Stockholm 50% | Djurgardens IF 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AIK Stockholm vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Strawberry Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 36% | Draw 29% | Djurgardens IF 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG AIK Stockholm 1.19 / Djurgardens IF 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: AIK Stockholm attack 0.860 / def 0.839 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.042 / def 0.881 | league avg home 1.570 / away 1.333 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
AIK Stockholm xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Djurgardens IF xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AIK Stockholm vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
AIK Stockholm vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Strawberry Arena.
What was the final score in AIK Stockholm vs Djurgardens IF?
AIK Stockholm 2 - 4 Djurgardens IF.
Where is AIK Stockholm vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Strawberry Arena.
What competition is AIK Stockholm vs Djurgardens IF part of?
AIK Stockholm vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AIK Stockholm vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives AIK Stockholm a 36% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in AIK Stockholm vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both AIK Stockholm and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will AIK Stockholm vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Djurgardens IF?
Record (8 meetings): AIK Stockholm 5W | Draws 2 | Djurgardens IF 1W.
What form are AIK Stockholm and Djurgardens IF in?
AIK Stockholm (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
AIK Stockholm's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Djurgardens IF's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, Djurgardens IF's attack versus AIK Stockholm's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
36%
2.76
29%
3.49
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
AIK Stockholm xG
Total xG
2.35
1.17
Djurgardens IF xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
11%
8.87
11%
9.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 11.1 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.2 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AIK Stockholm vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are AIK Stockholm and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for AIK Stockholm and 1.17 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for AIK Stockholm vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, AIK Stockholm have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 30W 12D 18L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Djurgardens IF's form line: 29W 15D 16L from 60 games, 1.70 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: AIK Stockholm on 1.70 PPG, Djurgardens IF on 1.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, AIK Stockholm have posted 1.93 PPG from 30 outings (17W 7D 6L).
On the road, Djurgardens IF have gone 15W 4D 11L from 30 away games — 1.63 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
AIK Stockholm are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.62 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AIK Stockholm
Current Season
Djurgardens IF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AIK Stockholm and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
AIK Stockholm have gone 30W 12D 18L in their last 60 games (1.70 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 29W 15D 16L in their last 60 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AIK Stockholm at home or Djurgardens IF away?
AIK Stockholm's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AIK Stockholm at home: 1.93 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.63 PPG.
Have AIK Stockholm or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
AIK Stockholm's record when hosting Djurgardens IF specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
AIK Stockholm
2
Draws
2
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Djurgardens IF?
From 10 meetings on record, AIK Stockholm have won 6, Djurgardens IF have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AIK Stockholm and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Djurgardens IF 1-3 AIK Stockholm.
Who has won more matches between AIK Stockholm and Djurgardens IF?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AIK Stockholm 47%, Djurgardens IF 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (AIK Stockholm) and 50% (Djurgardens IF).
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; AIK Stockholm have failed to score in 27% of games; Djurgardens IF in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AIK Stockholm home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AIK Stockholm play Djurgardens IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of AIK Stockholm's recent matches and 43% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AIK Stockholm vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of AIK Stockholm's recent games and 50% of Djurgardens IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AIK Stockholm and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
AIK Stockholm have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Djurgardens IF cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over AIK Stockholm.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat AIK Stockholm 2-4 at Strawberry Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 1.19 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.17 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. AIK Stockholm beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Djurgardens IF outscored their 1.17 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 0.86 / defence 0.84 against Djurgardens IF attack 1.04 / defence 0.88, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 36% | Draw 29% | Djurgardens IF 35%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Djurgardens IF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AIK Stockholm 50%, Djurgardens IF 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AIK Stockholm 1.70 PPG, Djurgardens IF 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Djurgardens IF win broke the near-deadlock. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.