Valencia 2-1 Girona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valencia at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Valencia face Girona.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Valencia host Girona at Estadio de Mestalla in La Liga (matchday 32). Kick-off is Saturday 25 April 2026 at 18:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Valencia — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Valencia at home: 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Girona stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Girona have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Valencia) versus 1.30 (Girona). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Valencia's games and 60% of Girona's (from Valencia's last 10 home games and Girona's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Valencia have won 2, Girona 4, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Oct 2025, ended Valencia 1–2 Girona — a Girona win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Valencia trading profile (last 70 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 27 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Girona trading profile (last 70 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valencia 56% versus Girona 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valencia 43% | Girona 53%). Note also that Girona surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while Valencia recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 37% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valencia 1.32 xG and Girona 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valencia attack 0.977 / defence 1.179 | Girona attack 0.930 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.115. Data: built from Valencia's last 70 games and Girona's last 70.
Result probabilities: Valencia 39% | Draw 27% | Girona 34%. Fair-value odds: Valencia 2.56 | Draw 3.75 | Girona 2.92. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Valencia are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Valencia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Valencia 70% (last 10 home games) | Girona 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valencia vs Girona | Competition: La Liga, matchday 32 | Venue: Estadio de Mestalla • Kick-off: Saturday 25 April 2026 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valencia 39% | Draw 27% | Girona 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Valencia 1.32 / Girona 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Valencia attack 0.977 / def 1.179 | Girona attack 0.930 / def 0.883 | league avg home 1.536 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Valencia (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Valencia xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Girona xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Valencia vs Girona FAQs
What time does Valencia vs Girona kick off?
Valencia vs Girona kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Saturday 25 April 2026 at Estadio de Mestalla.
What was the final score in Valencia vs Girona?
Valencia 2 - 1 Girona.
Where is Valencia vs Girona being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mestalla.
What competition is Valencia vs Girona part of?
Valencia vs Girona is a La Liga fixture (matchday 32) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valencia vs Girona?
Our statistical model gives Valencia a 39% chance of winning, Girona a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Valencia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valencia vs Girona?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Valencia and Girona will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Valencia vs Girona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Valencia's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Girona's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. The same calculation in reverse, Girona's attack versus Valencia's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Valencia's last 70 games and Girona's last 70 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valencia Win
39%
2.56
27%
3.75
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Valencia xG
Total xG
2.55
1.22
Girona xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
27%
3.76
Win to Nil
12%
8.69
9%
10.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.7 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Valencia vs Girona Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Valencia vs Girona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Valencia and Girona expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Valencia and 1.22 for Girona, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Valencia vs Girona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Valencia come into this having played 70 games, going 20W 22D 28L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-D.
On the other side, Girona sit at 1.13 PPG from 70 outings (20W 19D 31L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Valencia on 1.17 PPG, Girona on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Valencia's home form reads 15W 9D 10L across their last 34 home games, a 1.59 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — Valencia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Girona have taken 0.94 points per game from their last 34 away games (7W 11D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valencia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Valencia are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Girona are on 1.13 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 70 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valencia
Current Season
Girona
Current Season
Valencia (Home) vs Girona (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Valencia
Current Season
Girona
Current Season
❓ Valencia vs Girona Form FAQs
What form are Valencia and Girona in coming into this match?
Valencia have gone 20W 22D 28L in their last 70 games (1.17 PPG), while Girona have gone 20W 19D 31L in their last 70 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valencia at home or Girona away?
Valencia's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valencia at home: 1.59 PPG; Girona away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from August 2022. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was on 25 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Valencia's record when hosting Girona specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Valencia
1
Draws
4
Girona
Recent Meetings
❓ Valencia vs Girona H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Girona?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Valencia have won 3, Girona have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Valencia and Girona last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 April 2026: Valencia 2-1 Girona.
Who has won more matches between Valencia and Girona?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Valencia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 56% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valencia 53%, Girona 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Valencia) and 44% (Girona).
On the defensive side: Valencia keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Girona in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valencia home games / Girona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Valencia vs Girona Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Valencia and Girona matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Valencia's games and 59% of Girona's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Valencia and Girona matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Valencia's recent games and 44% of Girona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valencia and Girona matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Valencia's recent matches and 68% of Girona's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Valencia edge out Girona 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valencia beat Girona 2-1 at Estadio de Mestalla, Regular Season - 32, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valencia 1.32 xG and Girona 1.22 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valencia attack 0.98 / defence 1.18 against Girona attack 0.93 / defence 0.88, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valencia 39% | Draw 27% | Girona 34%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valencia 43%, Girona 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valencia's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Girona's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valencia 1.17 PPG, Girona 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valencia win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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