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Poisson model rates Alaves at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alaves vs Mallorca fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Alaves and Mallorca meet at Estadio Mendizorrotza in La Liga, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 April 2026 at 13:00 UTC.

Form

Alaves (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

At home at Estadio Mendizorrotza, Alaves have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Alaves are significantly better at Estadio Mendizorrotza than their overall form suggests.

Mallorca's overall La Liga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Mallorca away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Alaves, 3 for Mallorca and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.4 per game from 7 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with Mallorca winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Alaves half-time and goal-timing data (70 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Mallorca half-time and goal-timing data (70 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 54% versus Mallorca 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alaves 43% | Mallorca 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 1.62 xG and Mallorca 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.922 / defence 1.137 | Mallorca attack 0.842 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.109. Data: 70 Alaves games / 70 Mallorca games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Alaves 50% | Draw 25% | Mallorca 25%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Mallorca 4.00. Alaves hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Alaves are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alaves if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 1.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Alaves 70% | Mallorca 50% BTTS from recent games.

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