Osasuna 2-1 Sevilla – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osasuna at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osasuna vs Sevilla fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Sevilla travel to Estadio El Sadar to take on Osasuna. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 April 2026, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Osasuna stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Osasuna's home record at Estadio El Sadar: 5W 4D 1L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Osasuna are significantly better at Estadio El Sadar than their overall form suggests.
Sevilla — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sevilla's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Osasuna) versus 1.00 (Sevilla). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Osasuna register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Sevilla in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Osasuna, 2 for Sevilla and 4 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 9 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 0–1 with Sevilla winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Osasuna in-play tendencies (70 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Sevilla in-play tendencies (70 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 57% versus Sevilla 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 44% | Sevilla 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.99 xG and Sevilla 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 1.029 / defence 0.998 | Sevilla attack 0.920 / defence 1.239. League average goals — home 1.557 / away 1.148. Sevilla bring a strong defensive rating of 1.239 — this is suppressing Osasuna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 70 Osasuna games / 70 Sevilla games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 59% | Draw 21% | Sevilla 20%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 1.69 | Draw 4.76 | Sevilla 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Osasuna (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Osasuna are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 70% | Sevilla 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Sevilla | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Apr 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 59% | Draw 21% | Sevilla 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 56% | xG Osasuna 1.99 / Sevilla 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 1.029 / def 0.998 | Sevilla attack 0.920 / def 1.239 | league avg home 1.557 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Sevilla xG
56%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Sevilla kick off?
Osasuna vs Sevilla kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 26 April 2026 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Sevilla?
Osasuna 2 - 1 Sevilla.
Where is Osasuna vs Sevilla being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Sevilla part of?
Osasuna vs Sevilla is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Sevilla?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 59% chance of winning, Sevilla a 20% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Sevilla?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Osasuna and Sevilla will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Sevilla have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Sevilla?
Record (9 meetings): Osasuna 3W | Draws 4 | Sevilla 2W.
What form are Osasuna and Sevilla in?
Osasuna (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Sevilla (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Osasuna's attack rating (1.03) and Sevilla's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sevilla's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
59%
1.70
21%
4.67
20%
5.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Osasuna xG
Total xG
3.04
1.05
Sevilla xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.67
21%
Draw
5.10
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
14%
7.29
Win to Nil
21%
4.87
3%
37.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 10.0 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Sevilla?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Sevilla expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.05 for Sevilla, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Sevilla?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 70 outings, Osasuna have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 22W 25D 23L record — L-W-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Sevilla's form line: 19W 18D 33L from 70 games, 1.07 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osasuna on 1.30 PPG, Sevilla on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Osasuna have posted 1.91 PPG from 34 outings (18W 11D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.30 PPG overall — Osasuna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sevilla have gone 8W 7D 19L from 34 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osasuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Osasuna are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Sevilla are on 1.16 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 70 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Current Season
Sevilla
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Sevilla in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 22W 25D 23L in their last 70 games (1.30 PPG), while Sevilla have gone 19W 18D 33L in their last 70 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Sevilla away?
Osasuna's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.91 PPG; Sevilla away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Osasuna and Sevilla runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Osasuna's record when hosting Sevilla specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Osasuna
4
Draws
2
Sevilla
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Sevilla?
From 10 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 4, Sevilla have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Sevilla last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Osasuna 2-1 Sevilla.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Sevilla?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Sevilla are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 71%, Sevilla 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Osasuna) and 53% (Sevilla).
On the defensive side: Sevilla in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Sevilla away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Sevilla?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Osasuna's games and 56% of Sevilla's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Osasuna vs Sevilla usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Osasuna's recent games and 53% of Sevilla's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Sevilla tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Sevilla in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Osasuna edge out Sevilla 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna beat Sevilla 2-1 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 32, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.99 xG and Sevilla 1.05 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 1.03 / defence 1.00 against Sevilla attack 0.92 / defence 1.24, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 59% | Draw 21% | Sevilla 20%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 44%, Sevilla 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Sevilla's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.30 PPG, Sevilla 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osasuna win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.