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Poisson model rates Mallorca at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mallorca vs Valencia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Estadi Mallorca Son Moix plays host to Mallorca versus Valencia in La Liga, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Tuesday 21 April 2026 at 18:00 UTC.

Current Form

Mallorca's overall La Liga record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, Mallorca have posted 6W 1D 3L at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Mallorca are significantly better at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix than their overall form suggests.

Valencia (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Valencia's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Mallorca 3W, Valencia 2W, 4D.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Dec 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Mallorca goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (69 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Valencia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (69 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 56% versus Valencia 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mallorca 52% | Valencia 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.68 xG and Valencia 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 1.135 / defence 0.994 | Valencia attack 0.871 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.553 / away 1.124. Data: 69 Mallorca games / 69 Valencia games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Mallorca 54% | Draw 24% | Valencia 22%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 1.85 | Draw 4.17 | Valencia 4.55. Mallorca hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Mallorca as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mallorca if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mallorca 80% | Valencia 50% BTTS from recent games.

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