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Poisson rates Girona at 54% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Girona vs Mallorca encounter.

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Match Analysis

Girona host Mallorca at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi in La Liga, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 1 May 2026 at 20:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all La Liga games this season, Girona have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, Girona have posted 5W 2D 3L at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Girona are significantly better at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi than their overall form suggests.

Mallorca — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Mallorca's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Girona at 1.20 PPG versus Mallorca's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Girona have won 4, Mallorca 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Jan 2026, ended 2–1 with Girona winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Girona trading profile (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).

Mallorca trading profile (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Girona 56% versus Mallorca 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Girona 54% | Mallorca 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 1.74 xG and Mallorca 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 0.974 / defence 1.078 | Mallorca attack 0.829 / defence 1.155. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.136. Data: 71 Girona games / 71 Mallorca games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Girona 54% | Draw 24% | Mallorca 22%. Fair-value odds: Girona 1.85 | Draw 4.17 | Mallorca 4.55. Girona hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Girona as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Girona offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Girona 50% | Mallorca 60% BTTS from recent games.

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