Real Sociedad 3-1 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Real Sociedad at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Real Sociedad vs Osasuna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Osasuna travel to Reale Arena to take on Real Sociedad. The game is scheduled for Sunday 15 March 2026, 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Real Sociedad — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Real Sociedad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Reale Arena, Real Sociedad have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Osasuna stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Osasuna have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Real Sociedad at 1.80 PPG versus Osasuna's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Real Sociedad have won 5, Osasuna 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 3–1 with Real Sociedad winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Real Sociedad in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Osasuna in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Real Sociedad 49% versus Osasuna 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Real Sociedad 49% | Osasuna 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Real Sociedad 1.41 xG and Osasuna 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Real Sociedad attack 1.179 / defence 1.221 | Osasuna attack 0.802 / defence 0.777. League average goals — home 1.537 / away 1.120. Osasuna's defence strength of 0.777 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 65 Real Sociedad games / 65 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Real Sociedad 44% | Draw 27% | Osasuna 29%. Fair-value odds: Real Sociedad 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Osasuna 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Real Sociedad at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Real Sociedad offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Real Sociedad 90% | Osasuna 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Real Sociedad vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Reale Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Mar 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Real Sociedad 44% | Draw 27% | Osasuna 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Real Sociedad 1.41 / Osasuna 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Real Sociedad attack 1.179 / def 1.221 | Osasuna attack 0.802 / def 0.777 | league avg home 1.537 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Real Sociedad (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Real Sociedad xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Osasuna xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Real Sociedad vs Osasuna kick off?
Real Sociedad vs Osasuna kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 15 March 2026 at Reale Arena.
What was the final score in Real Sociedad vs Osasuna?
Real Sociedad 3 - 1 Osasuna.
Where is Real Sociedad vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Reale Arena.
What competition is Real Sociedad vs Osasuna part of?
Real Sociedad vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Real Sociedad vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Real Sociedad a 44% chance of winning, Osasuna a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Real Sociedad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Real Sociedad vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Real Sociedad and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Real Sociedad vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Real Sociedad and Osasuna?
Record (9 meetings): Real Sociedad 5W | Draws 1 | Osasuna 3W.
What form are Real Sociedad and Osasuna in?
Real Sociedad (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Osasuna (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Real Sociedad's attack at 1.18x the league average against Osasuna's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Osasuna's attack versus Real Sociedad's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Sociedad Win
44%
2.29
27%
3.64
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Real Sociedad xG
Total xG
2.50
1.10
Osasuna xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
15%
6.86
7%
14.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.6 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Real Sociedad vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Real Sociedad and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Real Sociedad and 1.10 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Real Sociedad vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 65 outings, Real Sociedad have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 22W 15D 28L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Real Sociedad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Osasuna's form line: 21W 23D 21L from 65 games, 1.32 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-D. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Real Sociedad on 1.25 PPG, Osasuna on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Real Sociedad have posted 1.50 PPG from 32 outings (14W 6D 12L).
On the road, Osasuna have gone 4W 13D 15L from 32 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Osasuna's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Real Sociedad come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Real Sociedad are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.23 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 65 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Real Sociedad
Blended
Osasuna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Real Sociedad and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Real Sociedad have gone 22W 15D 28L in their last 65 games (1.25 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 21W 23D 21L in their last 65 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Real Sociedad at home or Osasuna away?
Real Sociedad's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Real Sociedad at home: 1.50 PPG; Osasuna away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Real Sociedad have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Real Sociedad's record when hosting Osasuna specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Real Sociedad
1
Draws
3
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Real Sociedad and Osasuna?
From 10 meetings on record, Real Sociedad have won 6, Osasuna have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Real Sociedad and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Real Sociedad 3-1 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Real Sociedad and Osasuna?
Real Sociedad have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Real Sociedad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Osasuna see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Real Sociedad 53%, Osasuna 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Real Sociedad) and 28% (Osasuna).
On the defensive side: Real Sociedad have failed to score in 28% of games; Osasuna in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Real Sociedad home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Real Sociedad play Osasuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Real Sociedad's recent matches and 44% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Real Sociedad vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Real Sociedad's recent games and 28% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Real Sociedad and Osasuna tend to score early?
Real Sociedad have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 38% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Real Sociedad cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Osasuna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Sociedad beat Osasuna 3-1 at Reale Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Sociedad 1.41 xG and Osasuna 1.10 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Real Sociedad beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Sociedad attack 1.18 / defence 1.22 against Osasuna attack 0.80 / defence 0.78, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Real Sociedad 44% | Draw 27% | Osasuna 29%, with Real Sociedad to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Sociedad 49%, Osasuna 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Real Sociedad's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Osasuna's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Real Sociedad 1.25 PPG, Osasuna 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Real Sociedad win broke the near-deadlock. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm. Osasuna (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.