🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Rayo Vallecano at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rayo Vallecano vs Levante fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 28 as Rayo Vallecano welcome Levante to Campo de Futbol de Vallecas. Kick-off is set for Monday 16 March 2026 at 20:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all La Liga games this season, Rayo Vallecano have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W D D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rayo Vallecano, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Rayo Vallecano's home record at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas: 4W 5D 1L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas.

Levante — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Levante, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in La Liga this season, Levante have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Rayo Vallecano at 1.30 PPG versus Levante's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Rayo Vallecano, 1 for Levante and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2025, ended 3–0 with Rayo Vallecano winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Rayo Vallecano in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Levante in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rayo Vallecano 44% versus Levante 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rayo Vallecano 41% | Levante 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Rayo Vallecano 1.73 xG and Levante 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayo Vallecano attack 0.965 / defence 0.869 | Levante attack 0.904 / defence 1.161. League average goals — home 1.548 / away 1.119. Data: 65 Rayo Vallecano games / 27 Levante games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 57% | Draw 24% | Levante 18%. Fair-value odds: Rayo Vallecano 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | Levante 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Rayo Vallecano (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Rayo Vallecano are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rayo Vallecano 50% | Levante 40% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights