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Poisson rates Villarreal at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alaves vs Villarreal encounter.

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Match Analysis

Alaves host Villarreal at Estadio Mendizorrotza in La Liga, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 13 March 2026 at 20:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Alaves stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Alaves have posted 4W 3D 3L at Estadio Mendizorrotza — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Alaves are significantly better at Estadio Mendizorrotza than their overall form suggests.

Across all La Liga games this season, Villarreal have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Villarreal, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Villarreal's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Villarreal are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Alaves register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Villarreal in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Alaves have won 2, Villarreal 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Jan 2026, ended 1–3 with Villarreal winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Alaves in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Villarreal in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 51% versus Villarreal 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alaves 40% | Villarreal 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 1.36 xG and Villarreal 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.859 / defence 1.070 | Villarreal attack 1.138 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.143. Data: 65 Alaves games / 65 Villarreal games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Alaves 36% | Draw 26% | Villarreal 38%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Villarreal 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Villarreal at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Villarreal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Alaves 60% | Villarreal 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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