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Poisson rates Osasuna at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Osasuna vs Mallorca encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 27 as Osasuna welcome Mallorca to Estadio El Sadar. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 March 2026 at 13:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Osasuna — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Osasuna's home record at Estadio El Sadar: 5W 3D 2L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Mallorca stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Mallorca have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

On current form, Osasuna have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Osasuna, 2 for Mallorca and 4 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Osasuna in-play and half-time data (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).

Mallorca in-play and half-time data (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 56% versus Mallorca 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 44% | Mallorca 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.97 xG and Mallorca 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 1.160 / defence 1.055 | Mallorca attack 0.729 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.133. Data: 64 Osasuna games / 64 Mallorca games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Osasuna 63% | Draw 21% | Mallorca 16%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | Mallorca 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Osasuna (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Osasuna as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 80% | Mallorca 50% BTTS from recent games.

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