Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Levante – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rayo Vallecano at 57% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Rayo Vallecano face Levante.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Rayo Vallecano welcome Levante to Campo de Futbol de Vallecas in La Liga (matchday 28). Kick-off is Monday 16 March 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Rayo Vallecano have gone 3W 4D 3L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W D D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Rayo Vallecano's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 5D 1L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Levante — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Levante have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Rayo Vallecano at 1.30 PPG versus Levante's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Rayo Vallecano have won 1, Levante 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.7 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 19 Oct 2025, ended Rayo Vallecano 3–0 Levante — a Rayo Vallecano win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Rayo Vallecano in-play tendencies (last 27 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Levante in-play tendencies (last 27 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rayo Vallecano 44% versus Levante 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rayo Vallecano 41% | Levante 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rayo Vallecano 1.73 xG and Levante 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayo Vallecano attack 0.965 / defence 0.869 | Levante attack 0.904 / defence 1.161. League average goals — home 1.548 / away 1.119. Data: built from Rayo Vallecano's last 65 games and Levante's last 27.
Result probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 57% | Draw 24% | Levante 18%. Fair-value odds: Rayo Vallecano 1.75 | Draw 4.11 | Levante 5.42. The model has a clear lean to Rayo Vallecano (57%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rayo Vallecano are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Rayo Vallecano 50% (last 10 home games) | Levante 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rayo Vallecano vs Levante | Competition: La Liga, matchday 28 | Venue: Campo de Futbol de Vallecas • Kick-off: Monday 16 March 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 57% | Draw 24% | Levante 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Rayo Vallecano 1.73 / Levante 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Rayo Vallecano attack 0.965 / def 0.869 | Levante attack 0.904 / def 1.161 | league avg home 1.548 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Rayo Vallecano (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Rayo Vallecano xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Levante xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rayo Vallecano vs Levante FAQs
What time does Rayo Vallecano vs Levante kick off?
Rayo Vallecano vs Levante kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Monday 16 March 2026 at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas.
What was the final score in Rayo Vallecano vs Levante?
Rayo Vallecano 1 - 1 Levante.
Where is Rayo Vallecano vs Levante being played?
The match is being played at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas.
What competition is Rayo Vallecano vs Levante part of?
Rayo Vallecano vs Levante is a La Liga fixture (matchday 28) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Rayo Vallecano vs Levante?
Our statistical model gives Rayo Vallecano a 57% chance of winning, Levante a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Rayo Vallecano the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rayo Vallecano vs Levante?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Rayo Vallecano and Levante will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Rayo Vallecano vs Levante have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Rayo Vallecano's attack at 0.96x the league average against Levante's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Levante's attack versus Rayo Vallecano's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Rayo Vallecano's last 65 games and Levante's last 27 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rayo Vallecano Win
57%
1.75
24%
4.11
18%
5.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Rayo Vallecano xG
Total xG
2.61
0.88
Levante xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
5.42
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
18%
5.66
Win to Nil
24%
4.21
3%
30.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 11.2 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rayo Vallecano vs Levante Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rayo Vallecano vs Levante?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Rayo Vallecano and Levante expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Rayo Vallecano and 0.88 for Levante, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Rayo Vallecano vs Levante?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rayo Vallecano come into this having played 27 games, going 7W 10D 10L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-D.
On the other side, Levante sit at 0.81 PPG from 27 outings (5W 7D 15L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rayo Vallecano on 1.15 PPG, Levante on 0.81. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Rayo Vallecano's home form reads 4W 7D 2L across their last 13 home games, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, Levante have taken 0.85 points per game from their last 13 away games (3W 2D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rayo Vallecano come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rayo Vallecano are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Levante are on 1.07 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 27 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rayo Vallecano
Blended
Levante
Blended
Rayo Vallecano (Home) vs Levante (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rayo Vallecano
Blended
Levante
Blended
❓ Rayo Vallecano vs Levante Form FAQs
What form are Rayo Vallecano and Levante in coming into this match?
Rayo Vallecano have gone 7W 10D 10L in their last 27 games (1.15 PPG), while Levante have gone 5W 7D 15L in their last 27 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rayo Vallecano at home or Levante away?
Rayo Vallecano's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rayo Vallecano at home: 1.46 PPG; Levante away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from September 2021. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was on 16 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 19 Oct 2025, when Rayo Vallecano won Levante 0-3 Rayo Vallecano.
Rayo Vallecano's record when hosting Levante specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Rayo Vallecano
2
Draws
1
Levante
Recent Meetings
❓ Rayo Vallecano vs Levante H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Levante?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Rayo Vallecano have won 1, Levante have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rayo Vallecano and Levante last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 March 2026: Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Levante.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rayo Vallecano are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rayo Vallecano 54%, Levante 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Rayo Vallecano) and 46% (Levante).
On the defensive side: Rayo Vallecano keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Levante in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rayo Vallecano home games / Levante away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rayo Vallecano vs Levante Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rayo Vallecano and Levante matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Rayo Vallecano's recent matches and 38% of Levante's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Rayo Vallecano and Levante matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Rayo Vallecano's recent games and 46% of Levante's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rayo Vallecano and Levante matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Rayo Vallecano's recent matches and 77% of Levante's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rayo Vallecano and Levante share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas, Regular Season - 28, as Rayo Vallecano and Levante drew 1-1 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayo Vallecano 1.73 xG and Levante 0.88 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayo Vallecano attack 0.96 / defence 0.87 against Levante attack 0.90 / defence 1.16, drawn from 65/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rayo Vallecano 57% | Draw 24% | Levante 18%, with Rayo Vallecano to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayo Vallecano 41%, Levante 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Levante's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rayo Vallecano 1.15 PPG, Levante 0.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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