Levante 4-2 Oviedo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Levante at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Levante vs Oviedo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Oviedo travel to Estadio Ciudad de Valencia to take on Levante. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 March 2026, 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Levante — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Levante's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Oviedo stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Oviedo's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Levante at 0.90 PPG versus Oviedo's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Levante have won 1, Oviedo 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 2–0 with Levante winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Levante in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Oviedo in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 57% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levante 50% versus Oviedo 32%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Levante 43% | Oviedo 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levante 1.37 xG and Oviedo 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levante attack 0.666 / defence 1.160 | Oviedo attack 0.838 / defence 1.324. League average goals — home 1.553 / away 1.125. Levante's attack strength of 0.666 is below the league average — the 1.37 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Oviedo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.324 — this is suppressing Levante's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Levante games / 28 Oviedo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levante 42% | Draw 28% | Oviedo 29%. Fair-value odds: Levante 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Oviedo 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Levante at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Levante offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Levante 50% | Oviedo 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levante vs Oviedo | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Estadio Ciudad de Valencia • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Mar 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levante 42% | Draw 28% | Oviedo 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Levante 1.37 / Oviedo 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Levante attack 0.666 / def 1.160 | Oviedo attack 0.838 / def 1.324 | league avg home 1.553 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: Levante (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Levante xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Oviedo xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levante vs Oviedo kick off?
Levante vs Oviedo kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 21 March 2026 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What was the final score in Levante vs Oviedo?
Levante 4 - 2 Oviedo.
Where is Levante vs Oviedo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What competition is Levante vs Oviedo part of?
Levante vs Oviedo is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Levante vs Oviedo?
Our statistical model gives Levante a 42% chance of winning, Oviedo a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Levante the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levante vs Oviedo?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Levante and Oviedo will score (BTTS).
Will Levante vs Oviedo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Oviedo?
Record (1 meetings): Levante 1W | Draws 0 | Oviedo 0W.
What form are Levante and Oviedo in?
Levante (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Oviedo (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Levante's attack rating (0.67) and Oviedo's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Oviedo's attack versus Levante's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Levante Win
42%
2.35
28%
3.55
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Levante xG
Total xG
2.46
1.09
Oviedo xG
2.35
42%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
14%
7.03
7%
13.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.8 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levante vs Oviedo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Levante and Oviedo expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Levante and 1.09 for Oviedo, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Levante vs Oviedo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 28 outings, Levante have picked up 0.82 PPG on a 5W 8D 15L record — L-L-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Oviedo's form line: 4W 9D 15L from 28 games, 0.75 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Levante on 0.82 PPG, Oviedo on 0.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Levante have posted 0.79 PPG from 14 outings (2W 5D 7L).
On the road, Oviedo have gone 1W 4D 9L from 14 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Levante are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Oviedo are on 0.64 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 28 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levante
Current Season
Oviedo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levante and Oviedo in coming into this match?
Levante have gone 5W 8D 15L in their last 28 games (0.82 PPG), while Oviedo have gone 4W 9D 15L in their last 28 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levante at home or Oviedo away?
Levante's home record (0.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levante at home: 0.79 PPG; Oviedo away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Levante
0
Draws
0
Oviedo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Oviedo?
From 2 meetings on record, Levante have won 2, Oviedo have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Levante and Oviedo last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Levante 4-2 Oviedo.
Who has won more matches between Levante and Oviedo?
Levante have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Levante see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Oviedo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levante 57%, Oviedo 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Levante) and 50% (Oviedo).
On the defensive side: Levante have failed to score in 36% of games; Oviedo in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levante home games / Oviedo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levante play Oviedo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Levante's recent matches and 43% of Oviedo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levante vs Oviedo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Levante's recent games and 50% of Oviedo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levante and Oviedo tend to score early?
Levante have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Oviedo in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Levante cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Oviedo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Levante beat Oviedo 4-2 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Regular Season - 29, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levante 1.37 xG and Oviedo 1.09 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Levante beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Oviedo outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levante attack 0.67 / defence 1.16 against Oviedo attack 0.84 / defence 1.32, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levante 42% | Draw 28% | Oviedo 29%, with Levante to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levante 43%, Oviedo 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levante's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Oviedo's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Levante 0.82 PPG, Oviedo 0.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Levante win broke the near-deadlock. Levante (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Oviedo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.