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Poisson model rates Girona at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Levante vs Girona fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Estadio Ciudad de Valencia plays host to Levante versus Girona in La Liga, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Saturday 7 March 2026 at 15:15 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Levante have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Levante, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Levante's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Girona's overall La Liga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Girona, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in La Liga this season, Girona have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Levante, 1.50 for Girona — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Levante 1W, Girona 0W, 0D.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 4–0 with Levante winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Levante half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Girona half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levante 46% versus Girona 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levante 46% | Girona 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Levante 1.02 xG and Girona 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levante attack 0.677 / defence 1.175 | Girona attack 0.994 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.142. Levante's attack strength of 0.677 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 26 Levante games / 64 Girona games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Levante 28% | Draw 28% | Girona 44%. Fair-value odds: Levante 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | Girona 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Girona at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Girona if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Levante 40% | Girona 70%.

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