Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Girona – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Rayo Vallecano at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rayo Vallecano vs Girona encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Girona travel to Campo de Futbol de Vallecas to take on Rayo Vallecano in La Liga (matchday 35). The game is scheduled for Monday 11 May 2026 at 21:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Rayo Vallecano — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Rayo Vallecano's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Girona stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Girona's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

On current form, Rayo Vallecano have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Rayo Vallecano's games and 70% of Girona's (from Rayo Vallecano's last 10 home games and Girona's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Rayo Vallecano have won 2, Girona 2, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 15 Aug 2025, ended Rayo Vallecano 3–1 Girona — a Rayo Vallecano win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Rayo Vallecano in-play tendencies (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 52%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).

Girona in-play tendencies (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rayo Vallecano 50% versus Girona 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rayo Vallecano 42% | Girona 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Rayo Vallecano 1.33 xG and Girona 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayo Vallecano attack 0.930 / defence 0.899 | Girona attack 0.900 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.522 / away 1.149. Data: built from Rayo Vallecano's last 72 games and Girona's last 72.

Result probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 46% | Draw 28% | Girona 26%. Fair-value odds: Rayo Vallecano 2.18 | Draw 3.58 | Girona 3.82. Rayo Vallecano hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Rayo Vallecano at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rayo Vallecano offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 61% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Rayo Vallecano 60% (last 10 home games) | Girona 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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