🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Mallorca at 49%, yet in-form Villarreal provide a compelling counter-argument — this Mallorca vs Villarreal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 35 sees Villarreal travel to Estadi Mallorca Son Moix to take on Mallorca. The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 May 2026, 13:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all La Liga games this season, Mallorca have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Mallorca's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Mallorca are significantly better at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix than their overall form suggests.

Villarreal — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

When travelling in La Liga this season, Villarreal have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Form points away from home here. Villarreal's 2.00 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Mallorca's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H

The previous 9 encounters between these sides heavily favour Villarreal, who boast 5 victories compared to 2 for Mallorca.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 1–2 with Villarreal winning.

It is worth noting that Villarreal have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

In-Play Profile

Mallorca in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Villarreal in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mallorca 57% and Villarreal 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mallorca 51% | Villarreal 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.66 xG and Villarreal 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 1.098 / defence 0.965 | Villarreal attack 1.025 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.164. Data: 72 Mallorca games / 72 Villarreal games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Mallorca 49% | Draw 24% | Villarreal 26%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | Villarreal 3.85. Mallorca hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Mallorca are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Villarreal (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mallorca offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Mallorca 80% | Villarreal 70% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights