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Poisson model rates Levante at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Levante vs Osasuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Osasuna make the trip to Estadio Ciudad de Valencia to face Levante in La Liga, Regular Season - 35. The match kicks off on Friday 8 May 2026 at 20:00 UTC.

Form

Levante (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Levante's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Osasuna have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Osasuna away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Levante, 1.20 for Osasuna — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Levante lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2025, ended 0–2 with Osasuna winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Levante — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Osasuna — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levante 47% versus Osasuna 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levante 41% | Osasuna 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Levante 1.22 xG and Osasuna 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levante attack 0.855 / defence 1.012 | Osasuna attack 0.797 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.158. Data: 34 Levante games / 72 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Levante 43% | Draw 29% | Osasuna 28%. Fair-value odds: Levante 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Osasuna 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Levante at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Levante if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Levante 40% | Osasuna 50% BTTS from recent games.

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