Osasuna 0-0 Sevilla – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osasuna at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osasuna vs Sevilla fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Sevilla travel to Estadio El Sadar to take on Osasuna. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 September 2023, 15:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Osasuna stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Osasuna have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Osasuna's home record at Estadio El Sadar: 5W 1D 4L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Sevilla — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sevilla have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sevilla's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Osasuna) versus 1.10 (Sevilla). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Osasuna, 1 for Sevilla and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2023, ended 3–2 with Osasuna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Osasuna in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Sevilla in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 43% versus Sevilla 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 38% | Sevilla 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.57 xG and Sevilla 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.882 / defence 1.095 | Sevilla attack 1.165 / defence 1.181. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.217. Data: 43 Osasuna games / 42 Sevilla games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 39% | Draw 24% | Sevilla 38%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.56 | Draw 4.17 | Sevilla 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Osasuna are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osasuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.12 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Osasuna 50% | Sevilla 50%.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Sevilla | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Sep 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 39% | Draw 24% | Sevilla 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Osasuna 1.57 / Sevilla 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.882 / def 1.095 | Sevilla attack 1.165 / def 1.181 | league avg home 1.511 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Sevilla xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Sevilla kick off?
Osasuna vs Sevilla kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 23 September 2023 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Sevilla?
Osasuna 0 - 0 Sevilla.
Where is Osasuna vs Sevilla being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Sevilla part of?
Osasuna vs Sevilla is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Sevilla?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 39% chance of winning, Sevilla a 38% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Sevilla?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Osasuna and Sevilla will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Sevilla have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Sevilla?
Record (4 meetings): Osasuna 2W | Draws 1 | Sevilla 1W.
What form are Osasuna and Sevilla in?
Osasuna (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Sevilla (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Osasuna's attack rating (0.88) and Sevilla's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sevilla's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
39%
2.59
24%
4.21
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Osasuna xG
Total xG
3.12
1.55
Sevilla xG
2.59
39%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
21%
4.72
21%
4.82
Win to Nil
8%
12.22
8%
12.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.8 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.7 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.4 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Sevilla?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Sevilla expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.55 for Sevilla, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Sevilla?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 42 outings, Osasuna have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 16W 8D 18L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Osasuna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sevilla's form line: 14W 10D 18L from 42 games, 1.24 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Sevilla, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osasuna on 1.33 PPG, Sevilla on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Osasuna have posted 1.55 PPG from 20 outings (10W 1D 9L).
On the road, Sevilla have gone 6W 5D 9L from 20 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osasuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Osasuna are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Sevilla are on 1.26 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sevilla in 62%.
Last 42 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Early Season
Sevilla
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Sevilla in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 16W 8D 18L in their last 42 games (1.33 PPG), while Sevilla have gone 14W 10D 18L in their last 42 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Sevilla away?
Osasuna's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.55 PPG; Sevilla away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Osasuna and Sevilla runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Osasuna's record when hosting Sevilla specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Osasuna
4
Draws
2
Sevilla
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Sevilla?
From 10 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 4, Sevilla have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Sevilla last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Osasuna 2-1 Sevilla.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Sevilla?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Osasuna see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Sevilla are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 40%, Sevilla 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Osasuna) and 50% (Sevilla).
On the defensive side: Osasuna have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Sevilla away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Sevilla?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Osasuna's recent matches and 65% of Sevilla's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osasuna vs Sevilla usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Osasuna's recent games and 50% of Sevilla's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Sevilla tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Sevilla in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Osasuna's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 6, as Osasuna and Sevilla drew 0-0 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.57 xG and Sevilla 1.55 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Osasuna fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Sevilla landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 0.88 / defence 1.09 against Sevilla attack 1.17 / defence 1.18, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 39% | Draw 24% | Sevilla 38%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 38%, Sevilla 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sevilla's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.33 PPG, Sevilla 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Osasuna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Sevilla (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.