Girona 5-3 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Girona at 58% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Girona face Mallorca.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Girona host Mallorca at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi in La Liga (matchday 6). Kick-off is Saturday 23 September 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Girona have gone 4W 3D 3L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Girona have posted 7W 0D 3L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Girona are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Mallorca — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Mallorca's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Girona at 1.50 PPG versus Mallorca's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Girona have won 1, Mallorca 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 May 2023, ended Girona 2–1 Mallorca — a Girona win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Girona trading profile (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Mallorca trading profile (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Girona 70% versus Mallorca 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Girona 58% | Mallorca 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 1.82 xG and Mallorca 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 1.127 / defence 0.864 | Mallorca attack 0.927 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.479 / away 1.194. Data: built from Girona's last 43 games and Mallorca's last 43.
Result probabilities: Girona 58% | Draw 23% | Mallorca 19%. Fair-value odds: Girona 1.73 | Draw 4.39 | Mallorca 5.14. The model has a clear lean to Girona (58%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Girona as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Girona's last 10 home games and Mallorca's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Girona 60% (last 10 home games) | Mallorca 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Girona vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, matchday 6 | Venue: Estadi Municipal de Montilivi • Kick-off: Saturday 23 September 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Girona 58% | Draw 23% | Mallorca 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Girona 1.82 / Mallorca 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Girona attack 1.127 / def 0.864 | Mallorca attack 0.927 / def 1.093 | league avg home 1.479 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Girona (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Girona xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Mallorca xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Girona vs Mallorca FAQs
What time does Girona vs Mallorca kick off?
Girona vs Mallorca kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 23 September 2023 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What was the final score in Girona vs Mallorca?
Girona 5 - 3 Mallorca.
Where is Girona vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What competition is Girona vs Mallorca part of?
Girona vs Mallorca is a La Liga fixture (matchday 6) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Girona vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Girona a 58% chance of winning, Mallorca a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Girona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Girona vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Girona and Mallorca will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Girona vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Girona's attack rating (1.13) and Mallorca's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.82 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mallorca's attack versus Girona's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Girona's last 43 games and Mallorca's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Girona Win
58%
1.73
23%
4.39
19%
5.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Girona xG
Total xG
2.78
0.95
Mallorca xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
5.14
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
16%
6.19
Win to Nil
22%
4.50
3%
31.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 10.8 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Girona vs Mallorca Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Girona vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Girona and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Girona and 0.95 for Mallorca, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Girona vs Mallorca?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Girona come into this having played 43 games, going 17W 11D 15L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Mallorca sit at 1.28 PPG from 43 outings (15W 10D 18L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Girona on 1.44 PPG, Mallorca on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Girona's home form reads 12W 3D 6L across their last 21 home games, a 1.86 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.44 PPG overall — Girona are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Mallorca have taken 0.86 points per game from their last 21 away games (5W 3D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.28 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mallorca's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Girona come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Girona are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 0.95 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Girona have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Girona
Early Season
Mallorca
Early Season
Girona (Home) vs Mallorca (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Girona
Early Season
Mallorca
Early Season
❓ Girona vs Mallorca Form FAQs
What form are Girona and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Girona have gone 17W 11D 15L in their last 43 games (1.44 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 15W 10D 18L in their last 43 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Girona at home or Mallorca away?
Girona's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Girona at home: 1.86 PPG; Mallorca away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Girona or Mallorca been keeping clean sheets recently?
Girona have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Mallorca in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from September 2022. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was on 1 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Girona's record when hosting Mallorca specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Girona
1
Draws
3
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Girona vs Mallorca H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Mallorca?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Girona have won 4, Mallorca have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Girona and Mallorca last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 May 2026: Girona 0-1 Mallorca.
Who has won more matches between Girona and Mallorca?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Girona 67%, Mallorca 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Girona) and 43% (Mallorca).
On the defensive side: Mallorca in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Girona home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Girona vs Mallorca Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Girona and Mallorca matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Girona's recent matches and 43% of Mallorca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Girona and Mallorca matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Girona's recent games and 43% of Mallorca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Girona and Mallorca matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Girona's recent matches and 76% of Mallorca's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Girona cruise to a comfortable 5-3 victory over Mallorca.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Girona beat Mallorca 5-3 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 6, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 1.82 xG and Mallorca 0.95 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 5-3 for 8 actual goals. Girona beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Mallorca outscored their 0.95 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 1.13 / defence 0.86 against Mallorca attack 0.93 / defence 1.09, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Girona 58% | Draw 23% | Mallorca 19%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 58%, Mallorca 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Girona's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Mallorca's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Girona 1.44 PPG, Mallorca 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Girona win broke the near-deadlock. Girona (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mallorca (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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