Almeria 2-2 Valencia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Valencia at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Almeria vs Valencia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Almeria host Valencia at Power Horse Stadium in La Liga, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 23 September 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Almeria — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Almeria have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Almeria have posted 3W 2D 5L at Power Horse Stadium — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Almeria are significantly better at Power Horse Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all La Liga games this season, Valencia have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Valencia have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Valencia's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Valencia — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Almeria have won 1, Valencia 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2023, ended 2–1 with Almeria winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Almeria in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 82% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Valencia in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almeria 67% versus Valencia 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almeria 60% | Valencia 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almeria 1.27 xG and Valencia 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almeria attack 0.928 / defence 1.290 | Valencia attack 0.863 / defence 0.913. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.211. Data: 43 Almeria games / 43 Valencia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almeria 35% | Draw 26% | Valencia 39%. Fair-value odds: Almeria 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | Valencia 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Valencia at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Valencia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Almeria 60% | Valencia 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almeria vs Valencia | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Power Horse Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Sep 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almeria 35% | Draw 26% | Valencia 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Almeria 1.27 / Valencia 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Almeria attack 0.928 / def 1.290 | Valencia attack 0.863 / def 0.913 | league avg home 1.499 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Valencia (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Almeria xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Valencia xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almeria vs Valencia kick off?
Almeria vs Valencia kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 23 September 2023 at Power Horse Stadium.
What was the final score in Almeria vs Valencia?
Almeria 2 - 2 Valencia.
Where is Almeria vs Valencia being played?
The match is being played at Power Horse Stadium.
What competition is Almeria vs Valencia part of?
Almeria vs Valencia is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Almeria vs Valencia?
Our statistical model gives Almeria a 35% chance of winning, Valencia a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Valencia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almeria vs Valencia?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Almeria and Valencia will score (BTTS).
Will Almeria vs Valencia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almeria and Valencia?
Record (2 meetings): Almeria 1W | Draws 1 | Valencia 0W.
What form are Almeria and Valencia in?
Almeria (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Valencia (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Almeria's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Valencia's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. The same calculation in reverse, Valencia's attack versus Almeria's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 1-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valencia Win
35%
2.85
26%
3.81
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Almeria xG
Total xG
2.62
1.35
Valencia xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
9%
11.00
11%
9.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.8 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.5 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.9 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almeria vs Valencia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Almeria and Valencia expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Almeria and 1.35 for Valencia, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Almeria vs Valencia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, Almeria have picked up 0.98 PPG on a 11W 9D 23L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Almeria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Valencia's form line: 14W 9D 20L from 43 games, 1.19 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Valencia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Almeria on 0.98 PPG, Valencia on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Almeria have posted 1.57 PPG from 21 outings (10W 3D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 0.98 PPG overall — Almeria are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Valencia have gone 4W 4D 13L from 21 away games — 0.76 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valencia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Almeria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Almeria are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Valencia are on 1.14 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almeria have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almeria
Early Season
Valencia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almeria and Valencia in coming into this match?
Almeria have gone 11W 9D 23L in their last 43 games (0.98 PPG), while Valencia have gone 14W 9D 20L in their last 43 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almeria at home or Valencia away?
Almeria's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almeria at home: 1.57 PPG; Valencia away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Almeria and Valencia runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Almeria's record when hosting Valencia specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Almeria
2
Draws
1
Valencia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almeria and Valencia?
From 4 meetings on record, Almeria have won 1, Valencia have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Almeria and Valencia last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2024, when Valencia 2-1 Almeria.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Valencia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almeria 62%, Valencia 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Almeria) and 43% (Valencia).
On the defensive side: Valencia in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almeria home games / Valencia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almeria play Valencia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Almeria's games and 52% of Valencia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Almeria vs Valencia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Almeria's recent games and 43% of Valencia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Almeria and Valencia tend to score early?
Almeria have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Valencia in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Almeria and Valencia share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almeria and Valencia finished level at 2-2 at Power Horse Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almeria 1.27 xG and Valencia 1.35 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almeria attack 0.93 / defence 1.29 against Valencia attack 0.86 / defence 0.91, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almeria 35% | Draw 26% | Valencia 39%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almeria 60%, Valencia 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almeria's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Valencia's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Almeria 0.98 PPG, Valencia 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Valencia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.