Real Betis 1-1 Cadiz – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Real Betis at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Real Betis vs Cadiz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Real Betis host Cadiz at Estadio Benito Villamarín in La Liga, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 24 September 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Real Betis stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Real Betis have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Real Betis at Estadio Benito Villamarín this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Benito Villamarín. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Cadiz — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Cadiz have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cadiz away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Real Betis 1.50 PPG, Cadiz 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Real Betis's 30% rate and Cadiz's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Real Betis, 1 for Cadiz and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2023, ended 0–2 with Cadiz winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Real Betis in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Cadiz in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Real Betis 46% versus Cadiz 35%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Real Betis 49% | Cadiz 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Real Betis 1.37 xG and Cadiz 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Real Betis attack 0.821 / defence 0.732 | Cadiz attack 0.689 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.521 / away 1.231. Real Betis's defence rating of 0.732 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Real Betis games / 43 Cadiz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Real Betis 55% | Draw 29% | Cadiz 16%. Fair-value odds: Real Betis 1.82 | Draw 3.45 | Cadiz 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Real Betis (55%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Cadiz's lower xG of 0.62 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Real Betis are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 1.99 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Real Betis 30% | Cadiz 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Real Betis vs Cadiz | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estadio Benito Villamarín • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Sep 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Real Betis 55% | Draw 29% | Cadiz 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 35% | xG Real Betis 1.37 / Cadiz 0.62 • Poisson strength factors: Real Betis attack 0.821 / def 0.732 | Cadiz attack 0.689 / def 1.099 | league avg home 1.521 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Real Betis (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Real Betis xG
Expected Goals
0.62
Cadiz xG
35%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Real Betis vs Cadiz kick off?
Real Betis vs Cadiz kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 24 September 2023 at Estadio Benito Villamarín.
What was the final score in Real Betis vs Cadiz?
Real Betis 1 - 1 Cadiz.
Where is Real Betis vs Cadiz being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Benito Villamarín.
What competition is Real Betis vs Cadiz part of?
Real Betis vs Cadiz is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Real Betis vs Cadiz?
Our statistical model gives Real Betis a 55% chance of winning, Cadiz a 16% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Real Betis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Real Betis vs Cadiz?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Real Betis and Cadiz will score (BTTS).
Will Real Betis vs Cadiz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Real Betis and Cadiz?
Record (4 meetings): Real Betis 1W | Draws 2 | Cadiz 1W.
What form are Real Betis and Cadiz in?
Real Betis (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Cadiz (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Real Betis's attack rating (0.82) and Cadiz's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cadiz's attack versus Real Betis's defence, projects 0.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.1%), 1-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Betis Win
55%
1.82
29%
3.49
16%
6.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Real Betis xG
Total xG
1.99
0.62
Cadiz xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
6.07
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.87
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
54%
1.86
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
30%
3.39
4%
23.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 8.4 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.7 | 11.6 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 8.0 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Real Betis vs Cadiz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.2%.
How many goals are Real Betis and Cadiz expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Real Betis and 0.62 for Cadiz, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Real Betis vs Cadiz?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Real Betis come into this having played 43 games, going 19W 10D 14L for 1.56 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Real Betis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Cadiz sit at 1.14 PPG from 43 outings (12W 13D 18L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Cadiz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Real Betis carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Cadiz — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Real Betis's home form reads 10W 6D 5L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Cadiz have taken 0.71 points per game from 21 outings (3W 6D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cadiz's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Real Betis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Real Betis are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Cadiz are on 0.81 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 43 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Real Betis
Early Season
Cadiz
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Real Betis and Cadiz in coming into this match?
Real Betis have gone 19W 10D 14L in their last 43 games (1.56 PPG), while Cadiz have gone 12W 13D 18L in their last 43 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Real Betis at home or Cadiz away?
Real Betis's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Real Betis at home: 1.71 PPG; Cadiz away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Real Betis or Cadiz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Real Betis have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Cadiz in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Real Betis and Cadiz runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Real Betis's record when hosting Cadiz specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Real Betis
3
Draws
1
Cadiz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Real Betis and Cadiz?
From 6 meetings on record, Real Betis have won 2, Cadiz have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Real Betis and Cadiz last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2024, when Cadiz 0-2 Real Betis.
Who has won more matches between Real Betis and Cadiz?
Real Betis have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Real Betis see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Real Betis 48%, Cadiz 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Real Betis) and 29% (Cadiz).
On the defensive side: Real Betis keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Real Betis have failed to score in 29% of games; Cadiz in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Real Betis home games / Cadiz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Real Betis play Cadiz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Real Betis's recent matches and 33% of Cadiz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Real Betis vs Cadiz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Real Betis's recent games and 29% of Cadiz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Real Betis and Cadiz share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Benito Villamarín, Regular Season - 6, as Real Betis and Cadiz drew 1-1 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Betis 1.37 xG and Cadiz 0.62 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Betis attack 0.82 / defence 0.73 against Cadiz attack 0.69 / defence 1.10, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Real Betis 55% | Draw 29% | Cadiz 16%, with Real Betis to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Betis 49%, Cadiz 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Real Betis's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Cadiz's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Betis arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.