Osasuna 1-0 Girona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osasuna at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Osasuna face Girona.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Girona make the trip to Estadio El Sadar to face Osasuna in La Liga (matchday 29). The match kicks off on Saturday 21 March 2026 at 17:30 UK time.
Current Form
Osasuna's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Osasuna at home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Girona (all games): 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Girona away from home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Osasuna's last 10 home games and Girona's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 80% of Osasuna's games and 70% of Girona's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Girona edge it 4 wins to 2, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 10 Jan 2026, ended Osasuna 0–1 Girona — a Girona win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Osasuna half-time and goal-timing data (last 66 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 94% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Girona half-time and goal-timing data (last 66 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 58% versus Girona 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 46% | Girona 54%). Note also that Girona surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Osasuna recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 43% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.74 xG and Girona 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 1.135 / defence 1.141 | Girona attack 0.985 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.553 / away 1.125. Data: built from Osasuna's last 66 games and Girona's last 66.
Result probabilities: Osasuna 48% | Draw 25% | Girona 27%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.08 | Draw 4.06 | Girona 3.66. Osasuna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.74 / 1.26) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Osasuna at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Osasuna if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Osasuna's last 10 home games and Girona's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Osasuna 80% (last 10 home games) | Girona 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Girona | Competition: La Liga, matchday 29 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Saturday 21 March 2026 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 48% | Draw 25% | Girona 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Osasuna 1.74 / Girona 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 1.135 / def 1.141 | Girona attack 0.985 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.553 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Girona xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Osasuna vs Girona FAQs
What time does Osasuna vs Girona kick off?
Osasuna vs Girona kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Saturday 21 March 2026 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Girona?
Osasuna 1 - 0 Girona.
Where is Osasuna vs Girona being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Girona part of?
Osasuna vs Girona is a La Liga fixture (matchday 29) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Girona?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 48% chance of winning, Girona a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Girona?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Osasuna and Girona will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Osasuna vs Girona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Osasuna's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Girona's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.74. Flip it around — Girona's attack (0.98x) against Osasuna's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from Osasuna's last 66 games and Girona's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
48%
2.08
25%
4.06
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Osasuna xG
Total xG
3.00
1.26
Girona xG
2.08
48%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
18%
5.68
Win to Nil
14%
7.38
5%
20.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.9 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Osasuna vs Girona Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Girona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Girona expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.26 for Girona, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Girona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 66 outings, Osasuna have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 21W 23D 22L record — D-W-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Girona's form line: 19W 18D 29L from 66 games, 1.14 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Osasuna against 1.14 for Girona. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Osasuna have posted 1.91 PPG from their last 32 home games (17W 10D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.30 PPG overall — Osasuna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Girona have gone 7W 10D 15L from their last 32 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osasuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Osasuna are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Girona are on 1.14 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Current Season
Girona
Current Season
Osasuna (Home) vs Girona (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Osasuna
Current Season
Girona
Current Season
❓ Osasuna vs Girona Form FAQs
What form are Osasuna and Girona in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 21W 23D 22L in their last 66 games (1.30 PPG), while Girona have gone 19W 18D 29L in their last 66 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Girona away?
Osasuna's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.91 PPG; Girona away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was on 21 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Girona won Girona 4-0 Osasuna on 29 Aug 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Osasuna have gone 3W 0D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Girona — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Osasuna
1
Draws
4
Girona
Recent Meetings
❓ Osasuna vs Girona H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Girona?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Osasuna have won 3, Girona have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Girona last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 March 2026: Osasuna 1-0 Girona.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Girona?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 83% of those situations.
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 56% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 72% for Osasuna, 59% for Girona — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Osasuna) and 47% (Girona).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Girona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Osasuna vs Girona Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Osasuna and Girona matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Osasuna's games and 59% of Girona's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Osasuna and Girona matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Osasuna's recent games and 47% of Girona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Girona matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 94% of Osasuna's recent matches and 72% of Girona's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Osasuna edge out Girona 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna beat Girona 1-0 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 29, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.74 xG and Girona 1.26 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Girona landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 1.14 / defence 1.14 against Girona attack 0.98 / defence 0.99, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 48% | Draw 25% | Girona 27%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 46%, Girona 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Girona's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.30 PPG, Girona 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osasuna win broke the near-deadlock. Osasuna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Girona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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