Mallorca 1-1 Villarreal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mallorca at 49%, yet in-form Villarreal provide a compelling counter-argument — this Mallorca vs Villarreal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Villarreal travel to Estadi Mallorca Son Moix to take on Mallorca in La Liga (matchday 35). The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 May 2026 at 14:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Mallorca have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Mallorca's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Mallorca are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Villarreal — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Villarreal have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Villarreal's 2.00 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Mallorca's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Mallorca's last 10 home games and Villarreal's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
Villarreal have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the 9 H2H matches we hold against 2 for Mallorca.
The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Nov 2025, ended Mallorca 1–2 Villarreal — a Villarreal win.
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 5 wins from 9 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Profile
Mallorca in-play tendencies (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Villarreal in-play tendencies (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mallorca 57% and Villarreal 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mallorca 51% | Villarreal 62%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Mallorca surrender their half-time lead 40% of the time, while Villarreal have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.66 xG and Villarreal 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 1.098 / defence 0.965 | Villarreal attack 1.025 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.164. Data: built from Mallorca's last 72 games and Villarreal's last 72.
Result probabilities: Mallorca 49% | Draw 24% | Villarreal 26%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 2.03 | Draw 4.11 | Villarreal 3.78. Mallorca hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mallorca are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Villarreal (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mallorca offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Mallorca's last 10 home games and Villarreal's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Mallorca 80% (last 10 home games) | Villarreal 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Villarreal | Competition: La Liga, matchday 35 | Venue: Estadi Mallorca Son Moix • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 49% | Draw 24% | Villarreal 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Mallorca 1.66 / Villarreal 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 1.098 / def 0.965 | Villarreal attack 1.025 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Mallorca (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Villarreal xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mallorca vs Villarreal FAQs
What time does Mallorca vs Villarreal kick off?
Mallorca vs Villarreal kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Villarreal?
Mallorca 1 - 1 Villarreal.
Where is Mallorca vs Villarreal being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What competition is Mallorca vs Villarreal part of?
Mallorca vs Villarreal is a La Liga fixture (matchday 35) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Villarreal?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 49% chance of winning, Villarreal a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Mallorca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Villarreal?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Mallorca and Villarreal will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Mallorca vs Villarreal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Mallorca's attack rating (1.10) and Villarreal's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Villarreal's attack versus Mallorca's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Mallorca's last 72 games and Villarreal's last 72 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mallorca Win
49%
2.03
24%
4.11
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Mallorca xG
Total xG
2.81
1.15
Villarreal xG
2.03
49%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
19%
5.24
Win to Nil
16%
6.43
5%
19.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.5 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mallorca vs Villarreal Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Villarreal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Villarreal expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Mallorca and 1.15 for Villarreal, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Villarreal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 72 outings, Mallorca have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 23W 17D 32L record — W-W-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Villarreal's form line: 41W 15D 16L from 72 games, 1.92 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-W.
Put side by side, Villarreal are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mallorca.
Venue Form
On home soil, Mallorca have posted 1.56 PPG from their last 36 home games (15W 11D 10L).
On the road, Villarreal have gone 18W 7D 11L from their last 36 away games — 1.69 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Mallorca are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Villarreal are on 1.88 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Villarreal in 65%.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Current Season
Villarreal
Current Season
Mallorca (Home) vs Villarreal (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mallorca
Current Season
Villarreal
Current Season
❓ Mallorca vs Villarreal Form FAQs
What form are Mallorca and Villarreal in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 23W 17D 32L in their last 72 games (1.19 PPG), while Villarreal have gone 41W 15D 16L in their last 72 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Villarreal away?
Villarreal's away record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.56 PPG; Villarreal away: 1.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from September 2021. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was on 10 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 20 Jan 2025, when Villarreal won Villarreal 4-0 Mallorca.
Mallorca's record when hosting Villarreal specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Mallorca
3
Draws
5
Villarreal
Recent Meetings
❓ Mallorca vs Villarreal H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Villarreal?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Mallorca have won 2, Villarreal have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Villarreal last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 May 2026: Mallorca 1-1 Villarreal.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Villarreal?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Villarreal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Mallorca at 67%, Villarreal at 64%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Mallorca) and 53% (Villarreal).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Villarreal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mallorca vs Villarreal Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mallorca and Villarreal matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Mallorca's games and 64% of Villarreal's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Mallorca and Villarreal matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Mallorca's recent games and 53% of Villarreal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Villarreal matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Mallorca's recent matches and 78% of Villarreal's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mallorca and Villarreal share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mallorca and Villarreal finished level at 1-1 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 35, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.66 xG and Villarreal 1.15 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 1.10 / defence 0.96 against Villarreal attack 1.02 / defence 0.98, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 49% | Draw 24% | Villarreal 26%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 51%, Villarreal 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Villarreal's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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