Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Girona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rayo Vallecano at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rayo Vallecano vs Girona encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 35 sees Girona travel to Campo de Futbol de Vallecas to take on Rayo Vallecano. The game is scheduled for Monday 11 May 2026, 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Rayo Vallecano — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Rayo Vallecano's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Girona stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Girona's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Rayo Vallecano have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Rayo Vallecano register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Girona in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Rayo Vallecano have won 2, Girona 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2025, ended 3–1 with Rayo Vallecano winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Rayo Vallecano in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Girona in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rayo Vallecano 50% versus Girona 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rayo Vallecano 42% | Girona 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rayo Vallecano 1.33 xG and Girona 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayo Vallecano attack 0.930 / defence 0.899 | Girona attack 0.900 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.522 / away 1.149. Data: 72 Rayo Vallecano games / 72 Girona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 46% | Draw 28% | Girona 26%. Fair-value odds: Rayo Vallecano 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Girona 3.85. Rayo Vallecano hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rayo Vallecano at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rayo Vallecano offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. This conflicts with form data: Rayo Vallecano 60% | Girona 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rayo Vallecano vs Girona | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Campo de Futbol de Vallecas • Kick-off: Monday 11 May 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 46% | Draw 28% | Girona 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Rayo Vallecano 1.33 / Girona 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Rayo Vallecano attack 0.930 / def 0.899 | Girona attack 0.900 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.522 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Rayo Vallecano (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Rayo Vallecano xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Girona xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rayo Vallecano vs Girona kick off?
Rayo Vallecano vs Girona kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 11 May 2026 at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas.
What was the final score in Rayo Vallecano vs Girona?
Rayo Vallecano 1 - 1 Girona.
Where is Rayo Vallecano vs Girona being played?
The match is being played at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas.
What competition is Rayo Vallecano vs Girona part of?
Rayo Vallecano vs Girona is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Rayo Vallecano vs Girona?
Our statistical model gives Rayo Vallecano a 46% chance of winning, Girona a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Rayo Vallecano the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rayo Vallecano vs Girona?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Rayo Vallecano and Girona will score (BTTS).
Will Rayo Vallecano vs Girona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Girona?
Record (7 meetings): Rayo Vallecano 2W | Draws 3 | Girona 2W.
What form are Rayo Vallecano and Girona in?
Rayo Vallecano (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Girona (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Rayo Vallecano's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Girona's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Girona's attack versus Rayo Vallecano's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rayo Vallecano Win
46%
2.18
28%
3.58
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Rayo Vallecano xG
Total xG
2.26
0.93
Girona xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
18%
5.53
7%
14.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 9.7 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 12.9 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rayo Vallecano vs Girona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Rayo Vallecano and Girona expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Rayo Vallecano and 0.93 for Girona, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Rayo Vallecano vs Girona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 72 outings, Rayo Vallecano have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 23W 25D 24L record — W-L-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Girona's form line: 20W 19D 33L from 72 games, 1.10 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rayo Vallecano on 1.31 PPG, Girona on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Rayo Vallecano have posted 1.47 PPG from 36 outings (12W 17D 7L).
On the road, Girona have gone 7W 12D 17L from 36 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rayo Vallecano come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rayo Vallecano are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Girona are on 1.11 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 72 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rayo Vallecano
Current Season
Girona
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rayo Vallecano and Girona in coming into this match?
Rayo Vallecano have gone 23W 25D 24L in their last 72 games (1.31 PPG), while Girona have gone 20W 19D 33L in their last 72 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rayo Vallecano at home or Girona away?
Rayo Vallecano's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rayo Vallecano at home: 1.47 PPG; Girona away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 11 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Feb 2024, when Girona won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rayo Vallecano's record when hosting Girona specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Rayo Vallecano
4
Draws
2
Girona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Girona?
From 8 meetings on record, Rayo Vallecano have won 2, Girona have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Rayo Vallecano and Girona last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Girona.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rayo Vallecano are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rayo Vallecano 61%, Girona 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Rayo Vallecano) and 44% (Girona).
On the defensive side: Rayo Vallecano keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rayo Vallecano home games / Girona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rayo Vallecano play Girona?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Rayo Vallecano's games and 61% of Girona's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rayo Vallecano vs Girona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Rayo Vallecano's recent games and 44% of Girona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rayo Vallecano and Girona tend to score early?
Rayo Vallecano have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Girona in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rayo Vallecano and Girona share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas, Regular Season - 35, as Rayo Vallecano and Girona drew 1-1 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayo Vallecano 1.33 xG and Girona 0.93 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayo Vallecano attack 0.93 / defence 0.90 against Girona attack 0.90 / defence 0.94, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rayo Vallecano 46% | Draw 28% | Girona 26%, with Rayo Vallecano to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayo Vallecano 42%, Girona 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Girona's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rayo Vallecano 1.31 PPG, Girona 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.