Osasuna 1-0 Almeria – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Osasuna at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Osasuna vs Almeria encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Osasuna and Almeria meet at Estadio El Sadar in La Liga, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 4 January 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Osasuna's overall La Liga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osasuna's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Estadio El Sadar this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Almeria (all games): 0W 2D 8L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 0.20 points per game. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Almeria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almeria's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Osasuna's 0.90 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Almeria's 0.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Osasuna 2W, Almeria 0W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2023, ended 3–1 with Osasuna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Osasuna — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Almeria — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 46% versus Almeria 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 39% | Almeria 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.78 xG and Almeria 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.887 / defence 1.029 | Almeria attack 0.973 / defence 1.424. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.119. Almeria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.424 — this is suppressing Osasuna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 56 Osasuna games / 56 Almeria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 51% | Draw 27% | Almeria 22%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | Almeria 4.55. Osasuna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Osasuna at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Osasuna if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 50% | Almeria 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Almeria | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Thursday 4 Jan 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 51% | Draw 27% | Almeria 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Osasuna 1.78 / Almeria 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.887 / def 1.029 | Almeria attack 0.973 / def 1.424 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Almeria xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Almeria kick off?
Osasuna vs Almeria kicked off at 16:00 on Thursday 4 January 2024 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Almeria?
Osasuna 1 - 0 Almeria.
Where is Osasuna vs Almeria being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Almeria part of?
Osasuna vs Almeria is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Almeria?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 51% chance of winning, Almeria a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Almeria?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Osasuna and Almeria will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Almeria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Almeria?
Record (2 meetings): Osasuna 2W | Draws 0 | Almeria 0W.
What form are Osasuna and Almeria in?
Osasuna (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Almeria (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Osasuna's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Almeria's defensive record (1.42x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.78. Flip it around — Almeria's attack (0.97x) against Osasuna's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
51%
1.96
27%
3.68
22%
4.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.90
1.12
Almeria xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
4.56
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
17%
5.94
Win to Nil
17%
6.02
4%
27.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.0 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Almeria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Almeria expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.12 for Almeria, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Almeria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Osasuna's recent record stands at 20W 12D 24L from 56 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Almeria, meanwhile, have gone 11W 13D 32L across 56 games — 0.82 PPG, with L-D-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Almeria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Osasuna by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Almeria heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Osasuna have managed 13W 4D 11L from 28 games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Almeria's away record stands at 1W 6D 21L across 28 trips, a 0.32 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.82 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Almeria's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osasuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Osasuna are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Almeria are on 1.21 scored and 1.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almeria in 68%.
Last 56 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Blended
Almeria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Almeria in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 20W 12D 24L in their last 56 games (1.29 PPG), while Almeria have gone 11W 13D 32L in their last 56 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Almeria away?
Osasuna's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.54 PPG; Almeria away: 0.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Osasuna have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Osasuna won 0-3 on 30 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Osasuna have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Almeria — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Osasuna
0
Draws
0
Almeria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Almeria?
From 4 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 4, Almeria have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Almeria last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2024, when Almeria 0-3 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Almeria?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Osasuna see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 43%, Almeria 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Osasuna) and 68% (Almeria).
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Osasuna have failed to score in 32% of games; Almeria in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Almeria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Almeria?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Osasuna's games and 71% of Almeria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Osasuna vs Almeria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Osasuna's recent games and 68% of Almeria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Almeria tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Almeria in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Osasuna edge out Almeria 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna beat Almeria 1-0 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 19, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.78 xG and Almeria 1.12 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Almeria landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 0.89 / defence 1.03 against Almeria attack 0.97 / defence 1.42, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 51% | Draw 27% | Almeria 22%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 39%, Almeria 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Almeria's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Osasuna arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.82. That form edge translated into the three points. Osasuna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Almeria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.39 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.