Mallorca 2-1 Espanyol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mallorca at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Mallorca face Espanyol.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Espanyol make the trip to Estadi Mallorca Son Moix to face Mallorca in La Liga (matchday 28). The match kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 13:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Mallorca have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Mallorca have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Mallorca are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Espanyol's record over their last 10 games: 0W 4D 6L (0.40 PPG). Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Espanyol's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Mallorca against 0.40 for Espanyol. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Mallorca's last 10 home games and Espanyol's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Mallorca's games and 70% of Espanyol's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Espanyol edge it 4 wins to 2, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 15 Sep 2025, ended Mallorca 2–3 Espanyol — a Espanyol win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Mallorca — key trading statistics (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Espanyol — key trading statistics (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 55% versus Espanyol 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mallorca 49% | Espanyol 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.91 xG and Espanyol 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 1.017 / defence 1.140 | Espanyol attack 1.170 / defence 1.232. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.116. Espanyol's defence rating of 1.232 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Mallorca's projected output up. Data: built from Mallorca's last 65 games and Espanyol's last 65.
Result probabilities: Mallorca 48% | Draw 23% | Espanyol 30%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 2.10 | Draw 4.44 | Espanyol 3.34. Mallorca hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.91 / 1.49) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mallorca are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mallorca if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.40 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Mallorca's last 10 home games and Espanyol's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Mallorca 70% (last 10 home games) | Espanyol 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Espanyol | Competition: La Liga, matchday 28 | Venue: Estadi Mallorca Son Moix • Kick-off: Sunday 15 March 2026 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 48% | Draw 23% | Espanyol 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG Mallorca 1.91 / Espanyol 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 1.017 / def 1.140 | Espanyol attack 1.170 / def 1.232 | league avg home 1.526 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Mallorca (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Espanyol xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mallorca vs Espanyol FAQs
What time does Mallorca vs Espanyol kick off?
Mallorca vs Espanyol kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 15 March 2026 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Espanyol?
Mallorca 2 - 1 Espanyol.
Where is Mallorca vs Espanyol being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What competition is Mallorca vs Espanyol part of?
Mallorca vs Espanyol is a La Liga fixture (matchday 28) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Espanyol?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 48% chance of winning, Espanyol a 30% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Mallorca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Espanyol?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Mallorca and Espanyol will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Mallorca vs Espanyol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Mallorca's attack rating (1.02) and Espanyol's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.91 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Espanyol's attack (1.17x) against Mallorca's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from Mallorca's last 65 games and Espanyol's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mallorca Win
48%
2.10
23%
4.44
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Mallorca xG
Total xG
3.40
1.49
Espanyol xG
2.10
48%
Home win
4.44
23%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.96
Clean Sheet
23%
4.43
15%
6.77
Win to Nil
11%
9.32
4%
22.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 9.5 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.1 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mallorca vs Espanyol Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Espanyol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Espanyol expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Mallorca and 1.49 for Espanyol, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Espanyol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 65 outings, Mallorca have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 19W 16D 30L record — L-L-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Espanyol's form line: 21W 16D 28L from 65 games, 1.22 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Mallorca against 1.22 for Espanyol. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Mallorca have posted 1.44 PPG from their last 32 home games (12W 10D 10L).
On the road, Espanyol have gone 7W 7D 18L from their last 32 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mallorca come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mallorca are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Espanyol are on 1.14 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Blended
Espanyol
Blended
Mallorca (Home) vs Espanyol (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mallorca
Blended
Espanyol
Blended
❓ Mallorca vs Espanyol Form FAQs
What form are Mallorca and Espanyol in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 19W 16D 30L in their last 65 games (1.12 PPG), while Espanyol have gone 21W 16D 28L in their last 65 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Espanyol away?
Mallorca's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.44 PPG; Espanyol away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was on 15 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mallorca have gone 3W 1D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Espanyol — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Mallorca
1
Draws
4
Espanyol
Recent Meetings
❓ Mallorca vs Espanyol H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Espanyol?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Mallorca have won 3, Espanyol have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Espanyol last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 March 2026: Mallorca 2-1 Espanyol.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Espanyol?
Espanyol have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Espanyol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 66%, Espanyol 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Mallorca) and 47% (Espanyol).
On the defensive side: Espanyol in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Espanyol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mallorca vs Espanyol Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mallorca and Espanyol matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Mallorca's games and 53% of Espanyol's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Mallorca and Espanyol matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Mallorca's recent games and 47% of Espanyol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Espanyol matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Mallorca's recent matches and 62% of Espanyol's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mallorca edge out Espanyol 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mallorca beat Espanyol 2-1 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 28, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.91 xG and Espanyol 1.49 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 1.02 / defence 1.14 against Espanyol attack 1.17 / defence 1.23, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 48% | Draw 23% | Espanyol 30%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 49%, Espanyol 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Espanyol's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mallorca 1.12 PPG, Espanyol 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mallorca win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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