Levante 3-2 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Levante at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Levante face Osasuna.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Osasuna make the trip to Estadio Ciudad de Valencia to face Levante in La Liga (matchday 35). The match kicks off on Friday 8 May 2026 at 21:00 UK time.
Form
Levante (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Levante's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Osasuna have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Osasuna away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Levante, 1.20 for Osasuna — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Osasuna edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Dec 2025, ended Levante 0–2 Osasuna — a Osasuna win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Levante — key trading statistics (last 34 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Osasuna — key trading statistics (last 34 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 47% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levante 47% versus Osasuna 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levante 41% | Osasuna 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levante 1.22 xG and Osasuna 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levante attack 0.855 / defence 1.012 | Osasuna attack 0.797 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.158. Osasuna's attack rating of 0.797 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.93. Data: built from Levante's last 34 games and Osasuna's last 72.
Result probabilities: Levante 43% | Draw 29% | Osasuna 28%. Fair-value odds: Levante 2.35 | Draw 3.43 | Osasuna 3.53. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Levante at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Levante if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Levante 40% (last 10 home games) | Osasuna 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levante vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, matchday 35 | Venue: Estadio Ciudad de Valencia • Kick-off: Friday 8 May 2026 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levante 43% | Draw 29% | Osasuna 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Levante 1.22 / Osasuna 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Levante attack 0.855 / def 1.012 | Osasuna attack 0.797 / def 0.924 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Levante (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Levante xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Osasuna xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Levante vs Osasuna FAQs
What time does Levante vs Osasuna kick off?
Levante vs Osasuna kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Friday 8 May 2026 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What was the final score in Levante vs Osasuna?
Levante 3 - 2 Osasuna.
Where is Levante vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What competition is Levante vs Osasuna part of?
Levante vs Osasuna is a La Liga fixture (matchday 35) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Levante vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Levante a 43% chance of winning, Osasuna a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Levante the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levante vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Levante and Osasuna will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Levante vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Levante's attack at 0.85x the league average against Osasuna's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Osasuna's attack (0.80x) against Levante's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from Levante's last 34 games and Osasuna's last 72 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Levante Win
43%
2.35
29%
3.43
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Levante xG
Total xG
2.15
0.93
Osasuna xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
17%
5.98
8%
11.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 10.9 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.2 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Levante vs Osasuna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Levante vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Levante and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Levante and 0.93 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Levante vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 34 outings, Levante have picked up 0.97 PPG on a 8W 9D 17L record — L-W-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Osasuna's form line: 11W 9D 14L from 34 games, 1.24 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.97 PPG for Levante against 1.24 for Osasuna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Levante have posted 1.18 PPG from their last 17 home games (5W 5D 7L).
On the road, Osasuna have gone 2W 4D 11L from their last 17 away games — 0.59 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.24 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Osasuna's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Levante come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Levante are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.18 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 34 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levante
Current Season
Osasuna
Current Season
Levante (Home) vs Osasuna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Levante
Current Season
Osasuna
Current Season
❓ Levante vs Osasuna Form FAQs
What form are Levante and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Levante have gone 8W 9D 17L in their last 34 games (0.97 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 11W 9D 14L in their last 34 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levante at home or Osasuna away?
Levante's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levante at home: 1.18 PPG; Osasuna away: 0.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 5 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was as recently as 24 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Levante have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Osasuna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Levante
2
Draws
2
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Levante vs Osasuna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Osasuna?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Levante have won 1, Osasuna have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Levante and Osasuna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 August 2026: Osasuna 0-0 Levante.
Who has won more matches between Levante and Osasuna?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Levante see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Osasuna see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levante 53%, Osasuna 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Levante) and 35% (Osasuna).
On the defensive side: Levante have failed to score in 29% of games; Osasuna in 65%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levante home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Levante vs Osasuna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Levante and Osasuna matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Levante's recent matches and 35% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Levante and Osasuna matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Levante's recent games and 35% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Levante edge out Osasuna 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Levante beat Osasuna 3-2 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Regular Season - 35, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levante 1.22 xG and Osasuna 0.93 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Levante beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Osasuna outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levante attack 0.85 / defence 1.01 against Osasuna attack 0.80 / defence 0.92, drawn from 34/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levante 43% | Draw 29% | Osasuna 28%, with Levante to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levante 41%, Osasuna 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levante's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Osasuna's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Levante 0.97 PPG, Osasuna 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Levante win broke the near-deadlock. Levante (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm. Osasuna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.65 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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