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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model rates Osasuna at 44%, yet in-form Atletico Madrid provide a compelling counter-argument — this Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 36 as Osasuna welcome Atletico Madrid to Estadio El Sadar. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 12 May 2026 at 20:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all La Liga games this season, Osasuna have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, Osasuna have posted 5W 4D 1L at Estadio El Sadar — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Osasuna are significantly better at Estadio El Sadar than their overall form suggests.

Atletico Madrid — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling in La Liga this season, Atletico Madrid have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Form points away from home here. Atletico Madrid's 1.50 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Osasuna's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H Record

The previous 9 encounters between these sides heavily favour Atletico Madrid, who boast 7 victories compared to 2 for Osasuna.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 0–1 with Atletico Madrid winning.

It is worth noting that Atletico Madrid have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 7 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

In-Play Data

Osasuna trading profile (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).

Atletico Madrid trading profile (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 59% versus Atletico Madrid 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 47% | Atletico Madrid 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.54 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 1.030 / defence 1.018 | Atletico Madrid attack 1.068 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.165. Data: 73 Osasuna games / 73 Atletico Madrid games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Osasuna 44% | Draw 25% | Atletico Madrid 31%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Atletico Madrid 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Osasuna are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Atletico Madrid (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osasuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 80% | Atletico Madrid 40% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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