Celta Vigo 0-1 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Celta Vigo at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Celta Vigo vs Mallorca fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Celta Vigo and Mallorca meet at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos in La Liga, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 September 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Celta Vigo's overall La Liga record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Celta Vigo have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Celta Vigo's home record at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos: 4W 2D 4L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Celta Vigo are significantly better at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos than their overall form suggests.
Mallorca have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Mallorca have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Mallorca have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Celta Vigo, 2 for Mallorca and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2023, ended 0–1 with Mallorca winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Celta Vigo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Mallorca goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Celta Vigo 52% versus Mallorca 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Celta Vigo 48% | Mallorca 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Celta Vigo 1.43 xG and Mallorca 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Celta Vigo attack 0.794 / defence 0.989 | Mallorca attack 0.960 / defence 1.252. League average goals — home 1.438 / away 1.171. Celta Vigo's attack strength of 0.794 is below the league average — the 1.43 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Mallorca bring a strong defensive rating of 1.252 — this is suppressing Celta Vigo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Celta Vigo games / 42 Mallorca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Celta Vigo 44% | Draw 26% | Mallorca 29%. Fair-value odds: Celta Vigo 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Mallorca 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Celta Vigo at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Celta Vigo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Celta Vigo 40% | Mallorca 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Celta Vigo vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Estadio Abanca-Balaídos • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Sep 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Celta Vigo 44% | Draw 26% | Mallorca 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Celta Vigo 1.43 / Mallorca 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Celta Vigo attack 0.794 / def 0.989 | Mallorca attack 0.960 / def 1.252 | league avg home 1.438 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Celta Vigo (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Celta Vigo xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Mallorca xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Celta Vigo vs Mallorca kick off?
Celta Vigo vs Mallorca kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 16 September 2023 at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos.
What was the final score in Celta Vigo vs Mallorca?
Celta Vigo 0 - 1 Mallorca.
Where is Celta Vigo vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos.
What competition is Celta Vigo vs Mallorca part of?
Celta Vigo vs Mallorca is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Celta Vigo vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Celta Vigo a 44% chance of winning, Mallorca a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Celta Vigo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Celta Vigo vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Celta Vigo and Mallorca will score (BTTS).
Will Celta Vigo vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Mallorca?
Record (4 meetings): Celta Vigo 1W | Draws 1 | Mallorca 2W.
What form are Celta Vigo and Mallorca in?
Celta Vigo (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Mallorca (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Celta Vigo's attack rating (0.79) and Mallorca's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mallorca's attack (0.96x) against Celta Vigo's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Celta Vigo Win
44%
2.26
26%
3.80
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Celta Vigo xG
Total xG
2.54
1.11
Mallorca xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
15%
6.86
7%
14.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.5 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Celta Vigo vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Celta Vigo and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Celta Vigo and 1.11 for Mallorca, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Celta Vigo vs Mallorca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Celta Vigo's recent record stands at 12W 11D 19L from 42 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Celta Vigo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Mallorca, meanwhile, have gone 14W 10D 18L across 42 games — 1.24 PPG, with W-D-L-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Mallorca, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Celta Vigo against 1.24 for Mallorca. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Celta Vigo have managed 7W 6D 8L from 21 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mallorca's away record stands at 4W 4D 13L across 21 trips, a 0.76 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.24 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mallorca's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Celta Vigo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Celta Vigo are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 0.95 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 42 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Celta Vigo
Early Season
Mallorca
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Celta Vigo and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Celta Vigo have gone 12W 11D 19L in their last 42 games (1.12 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 14W 10D 18L in their last 42 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Celta Vigo at home or Mallorca away?
Celta Vigo's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Celta Vigo at home: 1.29 PPG; Mallorca away: 0.76 PPG.
Have Celta Vigo or Mallorca been keeping clean sheets recently?
Celta Vigo have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Mallorca in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Celta Vigo have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mallorca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Celta Vigo
3
Draws
3
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Mallorca?
From 10 meetings on record, Celta Vigo have won 4, Mallorca have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Celta Vigo and Mallorca last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Celta Vigo 2-0 Mallorca.
Who has won more matches between Celta Vigo and Mallorca?
Celta Vigo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Celta Vigo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Celta Vigo 52%, Mallorca 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Celta Vigo) and 43% (Mallorca).
On the defensive side: Mallorca in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Celta Vigo home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Celta Vigo play Mallorca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Celta Vigo's recent matches and 43% of Mallorca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Celta Vigo vs Mallorca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Celta Vigo's recent games and 43% of Mallorca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Celta Vigo and Mallorca tend to score early?
Celta Vigo have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Mallorca in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mallorca defy the odds to beat Celta Vigo 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mallorca beat Celta Vigo 0-1 at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos, Regular Season - 5, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Celta Vigo 1.43 xG and Mallorca 1.11 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Celta Vigo fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Celta Vigo attack 0.79 / defence 0.99 against Mallorca attack 0.96 / defence 1.25, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Celta Vigo 44% | Draw 26% | Mallorca 29%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Mallorca win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Celta Vigo 48%, Mallorca 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Celta Vigo's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mallorca's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Celta Vigo 1.12 PPG, Mallorca 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mallorca win broke the near-deadlock. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward. Mallorca (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.