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Poisson model rates Alaves at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alaves vs Girona fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Alaves host Girona at Estadio Mendizorrotza in La Liga, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 23 February 2026 at 20:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all La Liga games this season, Alaves have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Alaves have posted 4W 2D 4L at Estadio Mendizorrotza — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Girona stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Girona, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Girona away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Girona — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Alaves register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Girona in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Alaves, 3 for Girona and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 0–1 with Girona winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Alaves in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Girona in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 50% versus Girona 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alaves 39% | Girona 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 1.11 xG and Girona 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.784 / defence 1.005 | Girona attack 0.934 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.128. Alaves's attack strength of 0.784 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 62 Alaves games / 62 Girona games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Alaves 35% | Draw 32% | Girona 33%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 2.86 | Draw 3.12 | Girona 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Alaves at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Girona (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alaves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. This conflicts with form data: Alaves 60% | Girona 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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