Getafe 0-1 Sevilla – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Getafe at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Getafe face Sevilla.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Coliseum plays host to Getafe versus Sevilla in La Liga (matchday 25). Kick-off: Sunday 22 February 2026 at 13:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Getafe have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Getafe at home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Sevilla's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: D W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sevilla's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Getafe, 1.00 for Sevilla — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 8 H2H matches in our data, Sevilla edge it 4 wins to 3, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 8 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.8 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 25 Aug 2025, ended Getafe 2–1 Sevilla — a Getafe win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Getafe half-time and goal-timing data (last 62 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Sevilla half-time and goal-timing data (last 62 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Getafe 40% versus Sevilla 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Getafe 34% | Sevilla 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Getafe 1.23 xG and Sevilla 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Getafe attack 0.676 / defence 0.869 | Sevilla attack 0.959 / defence 1.200. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.143. Getafe's attack rating of 0.676 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.23. Data: built from Getafe's last 62 games and Sevilla's last 62.
Result probabilities: Getafe 41% | Draw 32% | Sevilla 27%. Fair-value odds: Getafe 2.43 | Draw 3.15 | Sevilla 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Getafe as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Getafe if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 63% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Getafe's last 10 home games and Sevilla's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Getafe 40% (last 10 home games) | Sevilla 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Getafe vs Sevilla | Competition: La Liga, matchday 25 | Venue: Coliseum • Kick-off: Sunday 22 February 2026 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Getafe 41% | Draw 32% | Sevilla 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Getafe 1.23 / Sevilla 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Getafe attack 0.676 / def 0.869 | Sevilla attack 0.959 / def 1.200 | league avg home 1.519 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Getafe (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Getafe xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Sevilla xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Getafe vs Sevilla FAQs
What time does Getafe vs Sevilla kick off?
Getafe vs Sevilla kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 22 February 2026 at Coliseum.
What was the final score in Getafe vs Sevilla?
Getafe 0 - 1 Sevilla.
Where is Getafe vs Sevilla being played?
The match is being played at Coliseum.
What competition is Getafe vs Sevilla part of?
Getafe vs Sevilla is a La Liga fixture (matchday 25) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Getafe vs Sevilla?
Our statistical model gives Getafe a 41% chance of winning, Sevilla a 27% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Getafe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Getafe vs Sevilla?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Getafe and Sevilla will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Getafe vs Sevilla have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Getafe's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against Sevilla's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. Flip it around — Sevilla's attack (0.96x) against Getafe's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from Getafe's last 62 games and Sevilla's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Getafe Win
41%
2.43
32%
3.15
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Getafe xG
Total xG
2.19
0.95
Sevilla xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
16%
6.29
8%
12.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 10.7 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.2 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Getafe vs Sevilla Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Getafe vs Sevilla?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Getafe and Sevilla expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Getafe and 0.95 for Sevilla, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Getafe vs Sevilla?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 62 outings, Getafe have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 19W 14D 29L record — L-D-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Sevilla's form line: 17W 16D 29L from 62 games, 1.08 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Getafe against 1.08 for Sevilla. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Getafe have posted 1.10 PPG from their last 30 home games (8W 9D 13L).
On the road, Sevilla have gone 7W 7D 16L from their last 30 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Getafe are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Sevilla are on 1.18 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Getafe
Blended
Sevilla
Blended
Getafe (Home) vs Sevilla (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Getafe
Blended
Sevilla
Blended
❓ Getafe vs Sevilla Form FAQs
What form are Getafe and Sevilla in coming into this match?
Getafe have gone 19W 14D 29L in their last 62 games (1.15 PPG), while Sevilla have gone 17W 16D 29L in their last 62 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Getafe at home or Sevilla away?
Getafe's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Getafe at home: 1.10 PPG; Sevilla away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to January 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was as recently as 1 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Getafe won Sevilla 0-3 Getafe on 16 Dec 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Getafe have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sevilla — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Getafe
1
Draws
5
Sevilla
Recent Meetings
❓ Getafe vs Sevilla H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Getafe and Sevilla?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Getafe have won 4, Sevilla have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Getafe and Sevilla last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 November 2026: Getafe 3-1 Sevilla.
Who has won more matches between Getafe and Sevilla?
Sevilla have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Getafe see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Sevilla are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Getafe 47%, Sevilla 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Getafe) and 57% (Sevilla).
On the defensive side: Getafe have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Getafe home games / Sevilla away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Getafe vs Sevilla Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Getafe and Sevilla matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Getafe's recent matches and 60% of Sevilla's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Getafe and Sevilla matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Getafe's recent games and 57% of Sevilla's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Getafe and Sevilla matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of Getafe's recent matches and 70% of Sevilla's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sevilla defy the odds to beat Getafe 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sevilla beat Getafe 0-1 at Coliseum, Regular Season - 25, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Getafe 1.23 xG and Sevilla 0.95 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Getafe fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Getafe attack 0.68 / defence 0.87 against Sevilla attack 0.96 / defence 1.20, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Getafe 41% | Draw 32% | Sevilla 27%, with Getafe to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Sevilla win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Getafe 34%, Sevilla 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Getafe's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sevilla's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Getafe 1.15 PPG, Sevilla 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sevilla win broke the near-deadlock. Getafe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward. Sevilla (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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