Getafe 3-1 Mallorca – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Getafe at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Getafe face Mallorca.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Getafe and Mallorca meet at Coliseum in La Liga (matchday 36). This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 13 May 2026 at 21:30 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Getafe have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

Getafe's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.60 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Mallorca (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Mallorca's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 9 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Getafe, 4 for Mallorca and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 9 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.7 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 9 Nov 2025, ended Getafe 0–1 Mallorca — a Mallorca win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Getafe half-time and goal-timing data (last 73 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

Mallorca half-time and goal-timing data (last 73 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Getafe 36% versus Mallorca 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Getafe 30% | Mallorca 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Getafe 1.06 xG and Mallorca 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Getafe attack 0.660 / defence 0.912 | Mallorca attack 0.811 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.516 / away 1.175. Getafe's attack rating of 0.660 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.06. Data: built from Getafe's last 73 games and Mallorca's last 73.

Result probabilities: Getafe 39% | Draw 31% | Mallorca 29%. Fair-value odds: Getafe 2.53 | Draw 3.19 | Mallorca 3.42. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Getafe at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Getafe if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.93 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Under 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Getafe's last 10 home games and Mallorca's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Getafe 20% (last 10 home games) | Mallorca 50% (last 10 away games).

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