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Poisson model rates Levante at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Levante vs Mallorca fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Levante host Mallorca at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia in La Liga, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 17 May 2026 at 18:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Levante — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, Levante have posted 6W 2D 2L at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Mallorca stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

When travelling in La Liga this season, Mallorca have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Levante at 1.80 PPG versus Mallorca's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Levante, 1 for Mallorca and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Levante in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Mallorca in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levante 50% versus Mallorca 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levante 44% | Mallorca 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Levante 1.74 xG and Mallorca 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levante attack 0.972 / defence 1.092 | Mallorca attack 0.839 / defence 1.184. League average goals — home 1.516 / away 1.149. Data: 36 Levante games / 74 Mallorca games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Levante 54% | Draw 24% | Mallorca 23%. Fair-value odds: Levante 1.85 | Draw 4.17 | Mallorca 4.35. Levante hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Levante at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Levante offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Levante 40% | Mallorca 60%.

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