Levante 2-0 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Levante at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Levante vs Mallorca fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Levante host Mallorca at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia in La Liga, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 17 May 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Levante — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Levante have posted 6W 2D 2L at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mallorca stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Mallorca have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Levante at 1.80 PPG versus Mallorca's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Levante, 1 for Mallorca and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Levante in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Mallorca in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levante 50% versus Mallorca 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levante 44% | Mallorca 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levante 1.74 xG and Mallorca 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levante attack 0.972 / defence 1.092 | Mallorca attack 0.839 / defence 1.184. League average goals — home 1.516 / away 1.149. Data: 36 Levante games / 74 Mallorca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levante 54% | Draw 24% | Mallorca 23%. Fair-value odds: Levante 1.85 | Draw 4.17 | Mallorca 4.35. Levante hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Levante at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Levante offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Levante 40% | Mallorca 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levante vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Estadio Ciudad de Valencia • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levante 54% | Draw 24% | Mallorca 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG Levante 1.74 / Mallorca 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Levante attack 0.972 / def 1.092 | Mallorca attack 0.839 / def 1.184 | league avg home 1.516 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Levante (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Levante xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Mallorca xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levante vs Mallorca kick off?
Levante vs Mallorca kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 17 May 2026 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What was the final score in Levante vs Mallorca?
Levante 2 - 0 Mallorca.
Where is Levante vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What competition is Levante vs Mallorca part of?
Levante vs Mallorca is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Levante vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Levante a 54% chance of winning, Mallorca a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Levante the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levante vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Levante and Mallorca will score (BTTS).
Will Levante vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Mallorca?
Record (3 meetings): Levante 1W | Draws 1 | Mallorca 1W.
What form are Levante and Mallorca in?
Levante (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Mallorca (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Levante's attack rating (0.97) and Mallorca's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mallorca's attack versus Levante's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Levante Win
54%
1.87
24%
4.23
23%
4.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Levante xG
Total xG
2.80
1.05
Mallorca xG
1.87
54%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
4.39
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
17%
5.72
Win to Nil
19%
5.35
4%
25.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.2 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levante vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Levante and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Levante and 1.05 for Mallorca, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Levante vs Mallorca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 36 outings, Levante have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 10W 9D 17L record — W-D-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Mallorca's form line: 10W 9D 17L from 36 games, 1.08 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Levante on 1.08 PPG, Mallorca on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Levante have posted 1.28 PPG from 18 outings (6W 5D 7L).
On the road, Mallorca have gone 2W 3D 13L from 18 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mallorca's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Levante come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Levante are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 1.22 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mallorca in 67%.
Last 36 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levante
Current Season
Mallorca
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levante and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Levante have gone 10W 9D 17L in their last 36 games (1.08 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 10W 9D 17L in their last 36 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levante at home or Mallorca away?
Levante's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levante at home: 1.28 PPG; Mallorca away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Levante's record when hosting Mallorca specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Levante
1
Draws
1
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Mallorca?
From 4 meetings on record, Levante have won 2, Mallorca have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Levante and Mallorca last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Levante 2-0 Mallorca.
Who has won more matches between Levante and Mallorca?
Levante have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levante 56%, Mallorca 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Levante) and 72% (Mallorca). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Levante have failed to score in 28% of games; Mallorca in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levante home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levante play Mallorca?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Levante's games and 61% of Mallorca's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Levante vs Mallorca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Levante's matches and 72% of Mallorca's.
Do Levante and Mallorca tend to score early?
Levante have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Mallorca in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Levante cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Mallorca.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Levante beat Mallorca 2-0 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Regular Season - 37, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levante 1.74 xG and Mallorca 1.05 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Mallorca landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levante attack 0.97 / defence 1.09 against Mallorca attack 0.84 / defence 1.18, drawn from 36/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levante 54% | Draw 24% | Mallorca 23%, with Levante to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levante 44%, Mallorca 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levante's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Mallorca's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Levante 1.08 PPG, Mallorca 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Levante win broke the near-deadlock. Levante (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line. Mallorca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.