🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Barcelona (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Alaves face Barcelona.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 36 as Alaves welcome Barcelona to Estadio Mendizorrotza. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 13 May 2026 at 20:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all La Liga games this season, Alaves have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Alaves's home record at Estadio Mendizorrotza: 3W 4D 3L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Barcelona — All Games: 10W 0D 0L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

When travelling in La Liga this season, Barcelona have posted 8W 0D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.40 is notably below their overall 3.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Barcelona — 2.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (3.00 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Alaves register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Barcelona in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

Despite the anticipated home advantage, Barcelona have the better historical record — 6 wins from 7 previous contests against 0 for Alaves.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2025, ended 1–3 with Barcelona winning.

It is worth noting that Barcelona have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

In-Play Profile

Alaves in-play tendencies (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Barcelona in-play tendencies (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 56% versus Barcelona 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alaves 44% | Barcelona 73%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 1.18 xG and Barcelona 2.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.966 / defence 1.313 | Barcelona attack 1.389 / defence 0.803. League average goals — home 1.516 / away 1.175. Barcelona have an above-average attack strength of 1.389 — the away xG of 2.14 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 73 Alaves games / 73 Barcelona games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Alaves 20% | Draw 20% | Barcelona 59%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 5.00 | Draw 5.00 | Barcelona 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Barcelona (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.18 / 2.14) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Barcelona are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.32 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Alaves 80% | Barcelona 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights