Celta Vigo 2-3 Levante – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Celta Vigo at 58%, yet in-form Levante provide a compelling counter-argument — this Celta Vigo vs Levante fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Levante travel to Estadio Abanca Balaídos to take on Celta Vigo in La Liga (matchday 36). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 12 May 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Celta Vigo have gone 4W 1D 5L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Celta Vigo at home: 5W 0D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Levante stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Levante's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Levante are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Celta Vigo, 0 for Levante and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Nov 2025, ended Celta Vigo 2–1 Levante — a Celta Vigo win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Celta Vigo in-play tendencies (last 35 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Levante in-play tendencies (last 35 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Celta Vigo 63% versus Levante 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Celta Vigo 46% | Levante 43%). Note also that Levante surrender HT leads in 56% of cases while Celta Vigo recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Celta Vigo 1.98 xG and Levante 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Celta Vigo attack 1.051 / defence 1.285 | Levante attack 0.734 / defence 1.237. League average goals — home 1.520 / away 1.150. Levante's defence rating of 1.237 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Celta Vigo's projected output up. Levante's attack rating of 0.734 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.08. Celta Vigo's defence rating of 1.285 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Levante's projected output up. Data: built from Celta Vigo's last 73 games and Levante's last 35.
Result probabilities: Celta Vigo 58% | Draw 22% | Levante 20%. Fair-value odds: Celta Vigo 1.72 | Draw 4.63 | Levante 4.91. The model has a clear lean to Celta Vigo (58%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Celta Vigo as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Levante (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Celta Vigo's last 10 home games and Levante's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Celta Vigo 50% (last 10 home games) | Levante 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Celta Vigo vs Levante | Competition: La Liga, matchday 36 | Venue: Estadio Abanca Balaídos • Kick-off: Tuesday 12 May 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Celta Vigo 58% | Draw 22% | Levante 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Celta Vigo 1.98 / Levante 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Celta Vigo attack 1.051 / def 1.285 | Levante attack 0.734 / def 1.237 | league avg home 1.520 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Celta Vigo (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Celta Vigo xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Levante xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Celta Vigo vs Levante FAQs
What time does Celta Vigo vs Levante kick off?
Celta Vigo vs Levante kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Tuesday 12 May 2026 at Estadio Abanca Balaídos.
What was the final score in Celta Vigo vs Levante?
Celta Vigo 2 - 3 Levante.
Where is Celta Vigo vs Levante being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Abanca Balaídos.
What competition is Celta Vigo vs Levante part of?
Celta Vigo vs Levante is a La Liga fixture (matchday 36) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Celta Vigo vs Levante?
Our statistical model gives Celta Vigo a 58% chance of winning, Levante a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Celta Vigo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Celta Vigo vs Levante?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Celta Vigo and Levante will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Celta Vigo vs Levante have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Celta Vigo's attack at 1.05x the league average against Levante's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Levante's attack versus Celta Vigo's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Celta Vigo's last 73 games and Levante's last 35 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Celta Vigo Win
58%
1.72
22%
4.63
20%
4.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Celta Vigo xG
Total xG
3.06
1.08
Levante xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
4.91
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
14%
7.21
Win to Nil
20%
5.10
3%
35.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 10.0 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Celta Vigo vs Levante Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Celta Vigo vs Levante?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Celta Vigo and Levante expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Celta Vigo and 1.08 for Levante, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Celta Vigo vs Levante?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Celta Vigo's recent record stands at 13W 11D 11L from 35 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-W in the last five.
Levante, meanwhile, have gone 9W 9D 17L across 35 games — 1.03 PPG, with W-W-D-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Celta Vigo on 1.43 PPG, Levante on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Celta Vigo have managed 5W 5D 7L from their last 17 home games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Levante's away record stands at 3W 4D 10L across their last 17 away games, a 0.76 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Celta Vigo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Celta Vigo are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Levante are on 1.17 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Celta Vigo have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 35 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Celta Vigo
Current Season
Levante
Current Season
Celta Vigo (Home) vs Levante (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Celta Vigo
Current Season
Levante
Current Season
❓ Celta Vigo vs Levante Form FAQs
What form are Celta Vigo and Levante in coming into this match?
Celta Vigo have gone 13W 11D 11L in their last 35 games (1.43 PPG), while Levante have gone 9W 9D 17L in their last 35 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Celta Vigo at home or Levante away?
Celta Vigo's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Celta Vigo at home: 1.18 PPG; Levante away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 5 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Celta Vigo's record when hosting Levante specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Celta Vigo
2
Draws
1
Levante
Recent Meetings
❓ Celta Vigo vs Levante H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Levante?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Celta Vigo have won 2, Levante have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Celta Vigo and Levante last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: Celta Vigo 0-0 Levante.
Who has won more matches between Celta Vigo and Levante?
Celta Vigo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Celta Vigo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Celta Vigo 65%, Levante 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Celta Vigo) and 41% (Levante).
On the defensive side: Levante in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Celta Vigo home games / Levante away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Celta Vigo vs Levante Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Celta Vigo and Levante matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Celta Vigo's recent matches and 41% of Levante's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Celta Vigo and Levante matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Celta Vigo's recent games and 41% of Levante's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Celta Vigo and Levante matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Celta Vigo's recent matches and 76% of Levante's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Levante defy the odds to beat Celta Vigo 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Levante beat Celta Vigo 2-3 at Estadio Abanca Balaídos, Regular Season - 36, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Celta Vigo 1.98 xG and Levante 1.08 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Levante outscored their 1.08 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Celta Vigo attack 1.05 / defence 1.28 against Levante attack 0.73 / defence 1.24, drawn from 73/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Celta Vigo 58% | Draw 22% | Levante 20%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Levante win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Celta Vigo 46%, Levante 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Celta Vigo's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Levante's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Celta Vigo 1.43 PPG, Levante 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Levante win broke the near-deadlock. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Levante (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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