Cadiz 1-0 Granada CF – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Cadiz at 55% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cadiz face Granada CF.

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Analysis & Preview

Granada CF travel to Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla to take on Cadiz in La Liga (matchday 30). The game is scheduled for Friday 29 March 2024 at 20:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Cadiz stand at 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

In front of their own supporters, Cadiz have posted 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Across their last 10 games, Granada CF have recorded 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Granada CF's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 1D 9L (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cadiz 0.70 PPG, Granada CF 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Cadiz have won 0, Granada CF 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.3 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 3 Jan 2024, ended Cadiz 0–2 Granada CF — a Granada CF win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Cadiz trading profile (last 28 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 71%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.

Granada CF trading profile (last 28 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 75%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 39% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cadiz 43% versus Granada CF 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cadiz 25% | Granada CF 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cadiz 1.68 xG and Granada CF 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cadiz attack 0.814 / defence 1.086 | Granada CF attack 0.759 / defence 1.456. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.102. Granada CF's defence rating of 1.456 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cadiz's projected output up. Granada CF's attack rating of 0.759 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.91. Data: built from Cadiz's last 67 games and Granada CF's last 28.

Result probabilities: Cadiz 55% | Draw 26% | Granada CF 19%. Fair-value odds: Cadiz 1.83 | Draw 3.82 | Granada CF 5.22. The model has a clear lean to Cadiz (55%) — a 29pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Cadiz as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cadiz 40% (last 10 home games) | Granada CF 30% (last 10 away games).

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