Granada CF 0-1 Valencia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Valencia (37%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Granada CF face Valencia.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 26 as Granada CF welcome Valencia to Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes. Kick-off is set for Thursday 4 April 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Granada CF stand at 0W 3D 7L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.
Granada CF at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Granada CF are significantly better at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes than their overall form suggests.
Valencia — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Valencia's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Valencia's 1.50 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Granada CF's 0.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Granada CF have won 0, Valencia 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2023, ended 0–1 with Valencia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Granada CF trading profile (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
Valencia trading profile (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Granada CF 55% versus Valencia 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Granada CF 41% | Valencia 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Granada CF 1.26 xG and Valencia 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Granada CF attack 0.864 / defence 1.352 | Valencia attack 0.870 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.371 / away 1.096. Data: 29 Granada CF games / 67 Valencia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Granada CF 35% | Draw 28% | Valencia 37%. Fair-value odds: Granada CF 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Valencia 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Valencia as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Valencia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Granada CF 70% | Valencia 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Granada CF vs Valencia | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes • Kick-off: Thursday 4 Apr 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Granada CF 35% | Draw 28% | Valencia 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Granada CF 1.26 / Valencia 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Granada CF attack 0.864 / def 1.352 | Valencia attack 0.870 / def 1.063 | league avg home 1.371 / away 1.096 • Poisson stance: Valencia (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Granada CF xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Valencia xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Granada CF vs Valencia kick off?
Granada CF vs Valencia kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 4 April 2024 at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes.
What was the final score in Granada CF vs Valencia?
Granada CF 0 - 1 Valencia.
Where is Granada CF vs Valencia being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes.
What competition is Granada CF vs Valencia part of?
Granada CF vs Valencia is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Granada CF vs Valencia?
Our statistical model gives Granada CF a 35% chance of winning, Valencia a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Valencia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Granada CF vs Valencia?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Granada CF and Valencia will score (BTTS).
Will Granada CF vs Valencia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Granada CF and Valencia?
Record (3 meetings): Granada CF 0W | Draws 1 | Valencia 2W.
What form are Granada CF and Valencia in?
Granada CF (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Valencia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Granada CF's attack rating (0.86) and Valencia's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Valencia's attack versus Granada CF's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valencia Win
35%
2.83
28%
3.57
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Granada CF xG
Total xG
2.55
1.29
Valencia xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
28%
3.52
Win to Nil
10%
10.27
10%
9.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 10.1 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.7 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.0 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Granada CF vs Valencia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Granada CF and Valencia expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Granada CF and 1.29 for Valencia, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Granada CF vs Valencia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Granada CF come into this having played 29 games, going 2W 8D 19L for 0.48 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Valencia sit at 1.41 PPG from 29 outings (11W 8D 10L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-D across their last five.
Valencia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.93 PPG clear of Granada CF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Granada CF's home form reads 2W 6D 6L across 14 games on their own ground, a 0.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Valencia have taken 0.86 points per game from 14 outings (3W 3D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.41 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valencia's season.
The Goals Picture
Granada CF are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 2.03 conceded per game recently; Valencia are on 1.10 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 29 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Granada CF
Current Season
Valencia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Granada CF and Valencia in coming into this match?
Granada CF have gone 2W 8D 19L in their last 29 games (0.48 PPG), while Valencia have gone 11W 8D 10L in their last 29 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Granada CF at home or Valencia away?
Granada CF's home record (0.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Granada CF at home: 0.86 PPG; Valencia away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Granada CF or Valencia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Granada CF have kept a clean sheet in 3% of their recent games, Valencia in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Granada CF and Valencia runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Valencia have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Granada CF's record when hosting Valencia specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Granada CF
1
Draws
3
Valencia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Granada CF and Valencia?
From 4 meetings on record, Granada CF have won 0, Valencia have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Granada CF and Valencia last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2024, when Granada CF 0-1 Valencia.
Who has won more matches between Granada CF and Valencia?
Valencia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Granada CF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Valencia see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Granada CF 71%, Valencia 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Granada CF) and 50% (Valencia).
On the defensive side: Valencia in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Granada CF home games / Valencia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Granada CF play Valencia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Granada CF's games and 50% of Valencia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Granada CF vs Valencia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Granada CF's recent games and 50% of Valencia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Granada CF and Valencia tend to score early?
Granada CF have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Valencia in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Valencia edge out Granada CF 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valencia beat Granada CF 0-1 at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes, Regular Season - 26, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Granada CF 1.26 xG and Valencia 1.29 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Granada CF fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Granada CF attack 0.86 / defence 1.35 against Valencia attack 0.87 / defence 1.06, drawn from 29/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Granada CF 35% | Draw 28% | Valencia 37%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Granada CF 41%, Valencia 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Granada CF's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Valencia's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Valencia arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.48. That form edge translated into the three points. Granada CF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Valencia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.