Alaves 0-1 Real Sociedad – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Real Sociedad at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Alaves face Real Sociedad.

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Analysis

Real Sociedad make the trip to Estadio de Mendizorroza to face Alaves in La Liga (matchday 30). The match kicks off on Sunday 31 March 2024 at 18:30 UK time.

Form

Alaves (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

At home, Alaves have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.

Real Sociedad have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Real Sociedad away from home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Alaves against 1.40 for Real Sociedad. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Real Sociedad edge it 1 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.7 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 2 Jan 2024, ended Alaves 1–1 Real Sociedad — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Alaves goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 29 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

Real Sociedad goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 29 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 41% versus Real Sociedad 55%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Alaves 28% | Real Sociedad 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 0.97 xG and Real Sociedad 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.763 / defence 1.045 | Real Sociedad attack 1.204 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.379 / away 1.098. Alaves's attack rating of 0.763 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.97. Real Sociedad have an above-average attack rating of 1.204, which lifts their away xG to 1.38. Data: built from Alaves's last 29 games and Real Sociedad's last 67.

Result probabilities: Alaves 25% | Draw 29% | Real Sociedad 46%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 3.93 | Draw 3.44 | Real Sociedad 2.20. Real Sociedad hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Real Sociedad are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Real Sociedad if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Alaves 50% (last 10 home games) | Real Sociedad 60% (last 10 away games).

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