Atletico Madrid 1-0 Girona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Atletico Madrid (50%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Atletico Madrid face Girona.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Atletico Madrid host Girona at Metropolitano Stadium in La Liga (matchday 37). Kick-off is Sunday 17 May 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Atletico Madrid — last 10 games: 5W 0D 5L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Atletico Madrid have posted 7W 0D 3L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Atletico Madrid are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Girona have recorded 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Girona's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Atletico Madrid carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Atletico Madrid: 6 wins from 7 H2H matches against 1 for Girona, with 0 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.6 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 21 Dec 2025, ended Atletico Madrid 3–0 Girona — a Atletico Madrid win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Atletico Madrid and goals — 6 wins from 7 H2H matches and an average of 3.6 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Atletico Madrid in-play tendencies (last 74 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 58%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Girona in-play tendencies (last 74 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico Madrid 49% versus Girona 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atletico Madrid 47% | Girona 51%). Note also that Girona surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while Atletico Madrid recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 58% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Madrid 1.59 xG and Girona 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Madrid attack 1.133 / defence 0.993 | Girona attack 0.918 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.516 / away 1.149. Data: built from Atletico Madrid's last 74 games and Girona's last 74.
Result probabilities: Atletico Madrid 50% | Draw 25% | Girona 25%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Madrid 2.00 | Draw 3.99 | Girona 4.00. Atletico Madrid hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atletico Madrid are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atletico Madrid offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 51% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Atletico Madrid 50% (last 10 home games) | Girona 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Madrid vs Girona | Competition: La Liga, matchday 37 | Venue: Metropolitano Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Madrid 50% | Draw 25% | Girona 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Atletico Madrid 1.59 / Girona 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Madrid attack 1.133 / def 0.993 | Girona attack 0.918 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.516 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Atletico Madrid (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Atletico Madrid xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Girona xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Atletico Madrid vs Girona FAQs
What time does Atletico Madrid vs Girona kick off?
Atletico Madrid vs Girona kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Sunday 17 May 2026 at Metropolitano Stadium.
What was the final score in Atletico Madrid vs Girona?
Atletico Madrid 1 - 0 Girona.
Where is Atletico Madrid vs Girona being played?
The match is being played at Metropolitano Stadium.
What competition is Atletico Madrid vs Girona part of?
Atletico Madrid vs Girona is a La Liga fixture (matchday 37) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Madrid vs Girona?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Madrid a 50% chance of winning, Girona a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Atletico Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Madrid vs Girona?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Atletico Madrid and Girona will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Atletico Madrid vs Girona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Atletico Madrid's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Girona's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. The same calculation in reverse, Girona's attack versus Atletico Madrid's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Atletico Madrid's last 74 games and Girona's last 74 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Madrid Win
50%
2.00
25%
3.99
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Atletico Madrid xG
Total xG
2.63
1.05
Girona xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
20%
4.89
Win to Nil
18%
5.71
5%
19.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 11.9 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Atletico Madrid vs Girona Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Madrid vs Girona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Atletico Madrid and Girona expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Atletico Madrid and 1.05 for Girona, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Madrid vs Girona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 74 outings, Atletico Madrid have picked up 1.92 PPG on a 42W 16D 16L record — L-W-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Girona's form line: 20W 21D 33L from 74 games, 1.09 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-D.
Put side by side, Atletico Madrid are the form team by 0.83 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Girona.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Atletico Madrid have posted 2.41 PPG from their last 37 home games (28W 5D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.92 PPG overall — Atletico Madrid are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Girona have gone 7W 13D 17L from their last 37 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atletico Madrid come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Atletico Madrid are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Girona are on 1.11 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Defensively: Atletico Madrid have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 74 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Madrid
Current Season
Girona
Current Season
Atletico Madrid (Home) vs Girona (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Atletico Madrid
Current Season
Girona
Current Season
❓ Atletico Madrid vs Girona Form FAQs
What form are Atletico Madrid and Girona in coming into this match?
Atletico Madrid have gone 42W 16D 16L in their last 74 games (1.92 PPG), while Girona have gone 20W 21D 33L in their last 74 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico Madrid at home or Girona away?
Atletico Madrid's home record (2.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico Madrid at home: 2.41 PPG; Girona away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Atletico Madrid or Girona been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atletico Madrid have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Girona in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was on 17 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Atletico Madrid have won the most recent 5 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 25 May 2025, when Atletico Madrid won Girona 0-4 Atletico Madrid.
Atletico Madrid's record when hosting Girona specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Atletico Madrid
0
Draws
1
Girona
Recent Meetings
❓ Atletico Madrid vs Girona H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Madrid and Girona?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Atletico Madrid have won 7, Girona have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Madrid and Girona last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 May 2026: Atletico Madrid 1-0 Girona.
Who has won more matches between Atletico Madrid and Girona?
Atletico Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atletico Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 83% of those situations.
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atletico Madrid 49%, Girona 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Atletico Madrid) and 43% (Girona).
On the defensive side: Atletico Madrid keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Madrid home games / Girona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Atletico Madrid vs Girona Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Atletico Madrid and Girona matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 49% of Atletico Madrid's games and 62% of Girona's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Atletico Madrid and Girona matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Atletico Madrid's recent games and 43% of Girona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atletico Madrid and Girona matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Atletico Madrid's recent matches and 65% of Girona's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Atletico Madrid edge out Girona 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Madrid beat Girona 1-0 at Metropolitano Stadium, Regular Season - 37, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Madrid 1.59 xG and Girona 1.05 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Girona landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Madrid attack 1.13 / defence 0.99 against Girona attack 0.92 / defence 0.93, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Madrid 50% | Draw 25% | Girona 25%, with Atletico Madrid to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Madrid 47%, Girona 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico Madrid's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Girona's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Atletico Madrid arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.09. That form edge translated into the three points. Atletico Madrid (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.16 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Girona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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