🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Rayo Vallecano at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rayo Vallecano vs Villarreal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Rayo Vallecano host Villarreal at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas in La Liga, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 17 May 2026 at 18:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Rayo Vallecano stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

In front of their own supporters this season, Rayo Vallecano have posted 5W 4D 1L at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Rayo Vallecano are significantly better at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas than their overall form suggests.

Villarreal — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

Villarreal's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Rayo Vallecano at 1.40 PPG versus Villarreal's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Rayo Vallecano register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Villarreal in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

Villarreal have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 9 encounters against Rayo Vallecano's 2 victories.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2025, ended 0–4 with Villarreal winning.

It is worth noting that Villarreal have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading Patterns

Rayo Vallecano in-play and half-time data (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).

Villarreal in-play and half-time data (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rayo Vallecano 51% versus Villarreal 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rayo Vallecano 40% | Villarreal 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Rayo Vallecano 1.32 xG and Villarreal 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayo Vallecano attack 0.916 / defence 0.906 | Villarreal attack 1.033 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.516 / away 1.149. Data: 74 Rayo Vallecano games / 74 Villarreal games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 42% | Draw 27% | Villarreal 30%. Fair-value odds: Rayo Vallecano 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Villarreal 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Rayo Vallecano are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rayo Vallecano offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Rayo Vallecano 60% | Villarreal 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights