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Poisson model rates Osasuna at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osasuna vs Espanyol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 37 as Osasuna welcome Espanyol to Estadio El Sadar. Kick-off is set for Sunday 17 May 2026 at 18:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Osasuna — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

In front of their own supporters this season, Osasuna have posted 4W 4D 2L at Estadio El Sadar — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Osasuna are significantly better at Estadio El Sadar than their overall form suggests.

Across all La Liga games this season, Espanyol have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

When travelling in La Liga this season, Espanyol have posted 0W 3D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Osasuna at 0.90 PPG versus Espanyol's 0.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Osasuna have won 2, Espanyol 1, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The last 7 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.1 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with Espanyol winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.1 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Osasuna in-play and half-time data (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).

Espanyol in-play and half-time data (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 60% versus Espanyol 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 47% | Espanyol 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.73 xG and Espanyol 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 1.000 / defence 1.075 | Espanyol attack 0.940 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 1.516 / away 1.149. Data: 74 Osasuna games / 74 Espanyol games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Osasuna 51% | Draw 24% | Espanyol 26%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Espanyol 3.85. Osasuna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Osasuna at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osasuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 90% | Espanyol 80% BTTS from recent games.

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