Athletic Club 0-1 Valencia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Athletic Club at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Athletic Club face Valencia.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Valencia travel to San Mamés to take on Athletic Club in La Liga (matchday 35). The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 May 2026 at 16:15 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Athletic Club stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Athletic Club at home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Valencia — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, Valencia have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Athletic Club 1.30 PPG, Valencia 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 8 H2H matches we hold have produced 4 wins for Athletic Club, 2 for Valencia and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 8 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.6 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 20 Sep 2025, ended Athletic Club 0–2 Valencia — a Valencia win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Athletic Club trading profile (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Valencia trading profile (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 27 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Athletic Club 51% versus Valencia 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Athletic Club 43% | Valencia 43%). Note also that Valencia surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while Athletic Club recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 60% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Athletic Club 1.23 xG and Valencia 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Athletic Club attack 0.882 / defence 0.973 | Valencia attack 0.870 / defence 0.905. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 1.163. Data: built from Athletic Club's last 72 games and Valencia's last 72.
Result probabilities: Athletic Club 42% | Draw 29% | Valencia 30%. Fair-value odds: Athletic Club 2.40 | Draw 3.47 | Valencia 3.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Athletic Club as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Athletic Club offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.6 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Athletic Club 60% (last 10 home games) | Valencia 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Athletic Club vs Valencia | Competition: La Liga, matchday 35 | Venue: San Mamés • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026 at 16:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Athletic Club 42% | Draw 29% | Valencia 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Athletic Club 1.23 / Valencia 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Athletic Club attack 0.882 / def 0.973 | Valencia attack 0.870 / def 0.905 | league avg home 1.534 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Athletic Club (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Athletic Club xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Valencia xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Athletic Club vs Valencia FAQs
What time does Athletic Club vs Valencia kick off?
Athletic Club vs Valencia kicked off at 16:15 UK time on Sunday 10 May 2026 at San Mamés.
What was the final score in Athletic Club vs Valencia?
Athletic Club 0 - 1 Valencia.
Where is Athletic Club vs Valencia being played?
The match is being played at San Mamés.
What competition is Athletic Club vs Valencia part of?
Athletic Club vs Valencia is a La Liga fixture (matchday 35) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Athletic Club vs Valencia?
Our statistical model gives Athletic Club a 42% chance of winning, Valencia a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Athletic Club the favourite.
Will both teams score in Athletic Club vs Valencia?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Athletic Club and Valencia will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Athletic Club vs Valencia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Athletic Club's attack at 0.88x the league average against Valencia's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Valencia's attack versus Athletic Club's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Athletic Club's last 72 games and Valencia's last 72 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Athletic Club Win
42%
2.40
29%
3.47
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Athletic Club xG
Total xG
2.21
0.98
Valencia xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
16%
6.42
9%
11.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 10.8 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.2 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Athletic Club vs Valencia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Athletic Club vs Valencia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Athletic Club and Valencia expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Athletic Club and 0.98 for Valencia, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Athletic Club vs Valencia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Athletic Club come into this having played 72 games, going 32W 18D 22L for 1.58 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-W.
On the other side, Valencia sit at 1.18 PPG from 72 outings (21W 22D 29L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-L across their last five.
Athletic Club carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of Valencia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Athletic Club's home form reads 20W 8D 8L across their last 36 home games, a 1.89 PPG return.
Away from home, Valencia have taken 0.78 points per game from their last 36 away games (5W 13D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Athletic Club come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Athletic Club are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Valencia are on 1.12 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Athletic Club
Current Season
Valencia
Current Season
Athletic Club (Home) vs Valencia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Athletic Club
Current Season
Valencia
Current Season
❓ Athletic Club vs Valencia Form FAQs
What form are Athletic Club and Valencia in coming into this match?
Athletic Club have gone 32W 18D 22L in their last 72 games (1.58 PPG), while Valencia have gone 21W 22D 29L in their last 72 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Athletic Club at home or Valencia away?
Athletic Club's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Athletic Club at home: 1.89 PPG; Valencia away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2022. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was as recently as 17 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Athletic Club's record when hosting Valencia specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Athletic Club
3
Draws
3
Valencia
Recent Meetings
❓ Athletic Club vs Valencia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Athletic Club and Valencia?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Athletic Club have won 4, Valencia have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Athletic Club and Valencia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2026: Valencia 0-0 Athletic Club.
Who has won more matches between Athletic Club and Valencia?
Athletic Club have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Athletic Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Valencia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Athletic Club 50%, Valencia 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Athletic Club) and 44% (Valencia).
On the defensive side: Athletic Club keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Valencia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Athletic Club home games / Valencia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Athletic Club vs Valencia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Athletic Club and Valencia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Athletic Club's recent matches and 58% of Valencia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Athletic Club and Valencia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Athletic Club's recent games and 44% of Valencia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Athletic Club and Valencia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Athletic Club's recent matches and 75% of Valencia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Valencia defy the odds to beat Athletic Club 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valencia beat Athletic Club 0-1 at San Mamés, Regular Season - 35, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Athletic Club 1.23 xG and Valencia 0.98 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Athletic Club fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Athletic Club attack 0.88 / defence 0.97 against Valencia attack 0.87 / defence 0.91, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Athletic Club 42% | Draw 29% | Valencia 30%, with Athletic Club to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Valencia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Athletic Club 43%, Valencia 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Athletic Club's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Valencia's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Athletic Club arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with Valencia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Athletic Club (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward. Valencia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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