Ulsan Hyundai FC 4-2 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ulsan Hyundai FC host Suwon City FC at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium in K League 1 (Championship Round - 5). Kick-off is Saturday 23 November 2024 at 05:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC stand at 7W 3D 0L — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Suwon City FC — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Suwon City FC away from home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Ulsan Hyundai FC are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.50 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Ulsan Hyundai FC, 1 for Suwon City FC and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.4 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 18 Aug 2024, ended Ulsan Hyundai FC 1–2 Suwon City FC — a Suwon City FC win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Ulsan Hyundai FC trading profile (last 75 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Suwon City FC trading profile (last 75 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 36 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 52% versus Suwon City FC 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 52% | Suwon City FC 56%). Note also that Suwon City FC surrender HT leads in 32% of cases while Ulsan Hyundai FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.67 xG and Suwon City FC 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.200 / defence 0.934 | Suwon City FC attack 1.064 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.233. Data: built from Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 66 games and Suwon City FC's last 66.
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 48% | Draw 24% | Suwon City FC 28%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.09 | Draw 4.15 | Suwon City FC 3.56. Ulsan Hyundai FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 10 home games and Suwon City FC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Suwon City FC 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, Championship Round - 5 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 November 2024 at 05:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 48% | Draw 24% | Suwon City FC 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.67 / Suwon City FC 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.200 / def 0.934 | Suwon City FC attack 1.064 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Suwon City FC xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC FAQs
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 05:00 UK time on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 4 - 2 Suwon City FC.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC is a K League 1 fixture (Championship Round - 5) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 48% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ulsan Hyundai FC's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Suwon City FC's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. The same calculation in reverse, Suwon City FC's attack versus Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 66 games and Suwon City FC's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
48%
2.09
24%
4.15
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.90
1.23
Suwon City FC xG
2.09
48%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
19%
5.32
Win to Nil
14%
7.13
5%
18.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.3 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.23 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 75 outings, Ulsan Hyundai FC have picked up 1.93 PPG on a 43W 16D 16L record — W-D-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Suwon City FC's form line: 24W 16D 35L from 75 games, 1.17 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-W.
Put side by side, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the form team by 0.76 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Suwon City FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ulsan Hyundai FC have posted 2.30 PPG from their last 37 home games (26W 7D 4L).
On the road, Suwon City FC have gone 11W 8D 18L from their last 37 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.35 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Defensively: Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 75 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Suwon City FC
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC (Home) vs Suwon City FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Suwon City FC
Current Season
❓ Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC Form FAQs
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 43W 16D 16L in their last 75 games (1.93 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 24W 16D 35L in their last 75 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Suwon City FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 2.30 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Suwon City FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Suwon City FC in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to June 2023. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was on 9 November 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Apr 2024, when Ulsan Hyundai FC won Ulsan Hyundai FC 3-0 Suwon City FC.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's record when hosting Suwon City FC specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Ulsan Hyundai FC
2
Draws
3
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 5, Suwon City FC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 November 2025: Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-0 Suwon City FC.
Who has won more matches between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 57%, Suwon City FC 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 54% (Suwon City FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Suwon City FC in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's games and 60% of Suwon City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's matches and 54% of Suwon City FC's.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent matches and 92% of Suwon City FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ulsan Hyundai FC cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Suwon City FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Suwon City FC 4-2 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Championship Round - 5, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.67 xG and Suwon City FC 1.23 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Ulsan Hyundai FC beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.20 / defence 0.93 against Suwon City FC attack 1.06 / defence 0.95, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 48% | Draw 24% | Suwon City FC 28%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 52%, Suwon City FC 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.03 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.