Gwangju FC 0-0 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gwangju FC at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gwangju FC vs Suwon City FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Suwon City FC travel to Gwangju Football Stadium to take on Gwangju FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 15 February 2025, 07:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Gwangju FC have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D L D D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Gwangju FC's home record at Gwangju Football Stadium: 4W 3D 3L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Gwangju FC are significantly better at Gwangju Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Suwon City FC stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 K League 1 matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Suwon City FC have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Gwangju FC 1.00 PPG, Suwon City FC 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Gwangju FC, 2 for Suwon City FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 6 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 27 Jul 2024, ended 1–0 with Gwangju FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Gwangju FC in-play and half-time data (76 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 49% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Suwon City FC in-play and half-time data (76 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gwangju FC 42% versus Suwon City FC 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gwangju FC 36% | Suwon City FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gwangju FC 1.40 xG and Suwon City FC 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gwangju FC attack 0.977 / defence 1.004 | Suwon City FC attack 1.013 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.259. Data: 33 Gwangju FC games / 33 Suwon City FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Gwangju FC 40% | Draw 26% | Suwon City FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Gwangju FC 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Suwon City FC 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gwangju FC at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gwangju FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gwangju FC 50% | Suwon City FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gwangju FC vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Gwangju Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Feb 2025, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gwangju FC 40% | Draw 26% | Suwon City FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Gwangju FC 1.40 / Suwon City FC 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Gwangju FC attack 0.977 / def 1.004 | Suwon City FC attack 1.013 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.259 • Poisson stance: Gwangju FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Gwangju FC xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Suwon City FC xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gwangju FC vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Gwangju FC vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 15 February 2025 at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Gwangju FC vs Suwon City FC?
Gwangju FC 0 - 0 Suwon City FC.
Where is Gwangju FC vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What competition is Gwangju FC vs Suwon City FC part of?
Gwangju FC vs Suwon City FC is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gwangju FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Gwangju FC a 40% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Gwangju FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gwangju FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Gwangju FC and Suwon City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gwangju FC vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gwangju FC and Suwon City FC?
Record (6 meetings): Gwangju FC 4W | Draws 0 | Suwon City FC 2W.
What form are Gwangju FC and Suwon City FC in?
Gwangju FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-D-D. Suwon City FC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Gwangju FC's attack rating (0.98) and Suwon City FC's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Suwon City FC's attack versus Gwangju FC's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gwangju FC Win
40%
2.52
26%
3.86
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Gwangju FC xG
Total xG
2.67
1.28
Suwon City FC xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
11%
9.05
9%
11.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.3 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gwangju FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Gwangju FC and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Gwangju FC and 1.28 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Gwangju FC vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 76 outings, Gwangju FC have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 30W 16D 30L record — D-L-D-D-D across the most recent five.
Suwon City FC's form line: 24W 16D 36L from 76 games, 1.16 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gwangju FC on 1.39 PPG, Suwon City FC on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Gwangju FC have posted 1.56 PPG from 39 outings (18W 7D 14L).
On the road, Suwon City FC have gone 11W 8D 20L from 39 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gwangju FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Gwangju FC are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.36 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gwangju FC
Current Season
Suwon City FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gwangju FC and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
Gwangju FC have gone 30W 16D 30L in their last 76 games (1.39 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 24W 16D 36L in their last 76 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gwangju FC at home or Suwon City FC away?
Gwangju FC's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gwangju FC at home: 1.56 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Gwangju FC or Suwon City FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gwangju FC have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Suwon City FC in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gwangju FC and Suwon City FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 30 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Gwangju FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Gwangju FC's record when hosting Suwon City FC specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Gwangju FC
1
Draws
3
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gwangju FC and Suwon City FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gwangju FC have won 6, Suwon City FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gwangju FC and Suwon City FC last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2025, when Suwon City FC 0-1 Gwangju FC.
Who has won more matches between Gwangju FC and Suwon City FC?
Gwangju FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gwangju FC see a goal before the break in 49% of their matches.
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gwangju FC 36%, Suwon City FC 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Gwangju FC) and 56% (Suwon City FC).
On the defensive side: Gwangju FC keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Gwangju FC have failed to score in 38% of games; Suwon City FC in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gwangju FC home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gwangju FC play Suwon City FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Gwangju FC's recent matches and 59% of Suwon City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gwangju FC vs Suwon City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Gwangju FC's recent games and 56% of Suwon City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gwangju FC and Suwon City FC tend to score early?
Gwangju FC have had a goal before half-time in 49% of their recent matches, Suwon City FC in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Gwangju FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gwangju Football Stadium, Regular Season - 1, as Gwangju FC and Suwon City FC drew 0-0 in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gwangju FC 1.40 xG and Suwon City FC 1.28 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Gwangju FC fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Suwon City FC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gwangju FC attack 0.98 / defence 1.00 against Suwon City FC attack 1.01 / defence 0.99, drawn from 33/33 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gwangju FC 40% | Draw 26% | Suwon City FC 34%, with Gwangju FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gwangju FC 36%, Suwon City FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gwangju FC's trading profile (76 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (76 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gwangju FC 1.39 PPG, Suwon City FC 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.