Suwon City FC 4-0 Gangwon FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Gangwon FC at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Suwon City FC face Gangwon FC.

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Analysis

Gangwon FC make the trip to Suwon Sports Complex to face Suwon City FC in K League 1 (Championship Round - 4). The match kicks off on Saturday 9 November 2024 at 07:30 UK time.

Form

Suwon City FC (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

In front of their own supporters, Suwon City FC have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

Gangwon FC have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Gangwon FC's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Suwon City FC against 1.40 for Gangwon FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Gangwon FC edge it 3 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 1 Sep 2024, ended Suwon City FC 2–2 Gangwon FC — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Suwon City FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 76 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 37 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).

Gangwon FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 76 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon City FC 59% versus Gangwon FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 55% | Gangwon FC 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.63 xG and Gangwon FC 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 1.053 / defence 1.390 | Gangwon FC attack 0.985 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.233. Suwon City FC's defence rating of 1.390 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Gangwon FC's projected output up. Data: built from Suwon City FC's last 66 games and Gangwon FC's last 66.

Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 37% | Draw 23% | Gangwon FC 40%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 2.69 | Draw 4.36 | Gangwon FC 2.51. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.63 / 1.69) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Gangwon FC are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gangwon FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.31 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Suwon City FC's last 10 home games and Gangwon FC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Suwon City FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Gangwon FC 50% (last 10 away games).

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