Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-3 FC Seoul – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Seoul make the trip to Gimcheon Stadium to face Gimcheon Sangmu FC in K League 1, Championship Round - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 November 2024 at 05:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's home record at Gimcheon Stadium: 6W 2D 2L from 10 K League 1 appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gimcheon Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
FC Seoul's overall K League 1 record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
FC Seoul away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Gimcheon Sangmu FC against 1.30 for FC Seoul. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, 2 for FC Seoul and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Jul 2024, ended 0–1 with FC Seoul winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Gimcheon Sangmu FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
FC Seoul goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 40% versus FC Seoul 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 46% | FC Seoul 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.51 xG and FC Seoul 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.087 / defence 0.913 | FC Seoul attack 1.010 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.233. Data: 33 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games / 66 FC Seoul games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 46% | Draw 26% | FC Seoul 29%. Fair-value odds: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | FC Seoul 3.45. Gimcheon Sangmu FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gimcheon Sangmu FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. This conflicts with form data: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 30% | FC Seoul 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul | Competition: K League 1, Championship Round - 5 | Venue: Gimcheon Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Nov 2024, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 46% | Draw 26% | FC Seoul 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.51 / FC Seoul 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.087 / def 0.913 | FC Seoul attack 1.010 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Gimcheon Sangmu FC (46%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.14
FC Seoul xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul kick off?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul kicked off at 05:00 on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Gimcheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1 - 3 FC Seoul.
Where is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul being played?
The match is being played at Gimcheon Stadium.
What competition is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul part of?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul is a Championship Round - 5 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul?
Our statistical model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 46% chance of winning, FC Seoul a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Gimcheon Sangmu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Seoul will score (BTTS).
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Seoul?
Record (4 meetings): Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0W | Draws 2 | FC Seoul 2W.
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Seoul in?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. FC Seoul (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack rating (1.09) and FC Seoul's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Seoul's attack (1.01x) against Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 33/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gimcheon Sangmu FC Win
46%
2.18
26%
3.91
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Total xG
2.65
1.14
FC Seoul xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
15%
6.79
6%
15.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.2 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Seoul expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 1.14 for FC Seoul, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gimcheon Sangmu FC come into this having played 37 games, going 18W 9D 10L for 1.70 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-W.
On the other side, FC Seoul sit at 1.49 PPG from 37 outings (15W 10D 12L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.70 PPG for Gimcheon Sangmu FC against 1.49 for FC Seoul. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's home form reads 11W 4D 3L across 18 games on their own ground, a 2.06 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Seoul have taken 1.39 points per game from 18 outings (6W 7D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gimcheon Sangmu FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; FC Seoul are on 1.41 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Gimcheon Sangmu FC have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games; FC Seoul in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Current Season
FC Seoul
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Seoul in coming into this match?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 18W 9D 10L in their last 37 games (1.70 PPG), while FC Seoul have gone 15W 10D 12L in their last 37 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home or FC Seoul away?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home: 2.06 PPG; FC Seoul away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Gimcheon Sangmu FC or FC Seoul been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, FC Seoul in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Gimcheon Sangmu FC have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Seoul won 5-1 on 3 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against FC Seoul — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
3
Draws
4
FC Seoul
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Seoul?
From 10 meetings on record, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 3, FC Seoul have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Seoul last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when FC Seoul 2-3 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Who has won more matches between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Seoul?
FC Seoul have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gimcheon Sangmu FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
FC Seoul see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 39%, FC Seoul 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC) and 44% (FC Seoul).
On the defensive side: Gimcheon Sangmu FC keep a clean sheet in 61% of their matches; FC Seoul in 33%; FC Seoul in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gimcheon Sangmu FC home games / FC Seoul away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gimcheon Sangmu FC play FC Seoul?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent matches and 56% of FC Seoul's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent games and 44% of FC Seoul's, pointing to a tighter contest.
FC Seoul cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Seoul beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-3 at Gimcheon Stadium, Championship Round - 5, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.51 xG and FC Seoul 1.14 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. FC Seoul outscored their 1.14 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.09 / defence 0.91 against FC Seoul attack 1.01 / defence 0.95, drawn from 33/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 46% | Draw 26% | FC Seoul 29%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual FC Seoul win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 46%, FC Seoul 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Seoul's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.70 PPG, FC Seoul 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Seoul win broke the near-deadlock. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Seoul (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.