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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Anyang fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 1 as Ulsan Hyundai FC welcome FC Anyang to Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 16 February 2025 at 05:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all K League 1 games this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium: 8W 0D 2L from 10 K League 1 appearances (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.74 xG and FC Anyang 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.104 / defence 0.986 | FC Anyang attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.187. Data: 33 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 0 FC Anyang games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 55% | Draw 24% | FC Anyang 22%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | FC Anyang 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Ulsan Hyundai FC (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Ulsan Hyundai FC at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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