Ulsan Hyundai FC 0-1 FC Anyang – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Anyang fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 1 as Ulsan Hyundai FC welcome FC Anyang to Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 16 February 2025 at 05:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium: 8W 0D 2L from 10 K League 1 appearances (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.74 xG and FC Anyang 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.104 / defence 0.986 | FC Anyang attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.187. Data: 33 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 0 FC Anyang games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 55% | Draw 24% | FC Anyang 22%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | FC Anyang 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Ulsan Hyundai FC (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ulsan Hyundai FC at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Anyang | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Feb 2025, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 55% | Draw 24% | FC Anyang 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 52% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.74 / FC Anyang 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.104 / def 0.986 | FC Anyang attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
0.99
FC Anyang xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Anyang kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Anyang kicked off at 05:00 on Sunday 16 February 2025 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Anyang?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 0 - 1 FC Anyang.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Anyang being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Anyang part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Anyang is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Anyang?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 55% chance of winning, FC Anyang a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Anyang?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Anyang will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Anyang have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Anyang?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Anyang in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Ulsan Hyundai FC home split: 2.40 PPG from 10 | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack rating (1.10) and FC Anyang's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Anyang's attack versus Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
55%
1.83
24%
4.20
22%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.73
0.99
FC Anyang xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
4.65
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
18%
5.67
Win to Nil
20%
4.94
4%
26.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Anyang?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Anyang expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 0.99 for FC Anyang, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Anyang?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Pre-Season
FC Anyang
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Anyang runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ulsan Hyundai FC's record when hosting FC Anyang specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Ulsan Hyundai FC
2
Draws
2
FC Anyang
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Anyang?
From 6 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 2, FC Anyang have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Anyang last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 3-1 FC Anyang.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / FC Anyang away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as FC Anyang defy the odds to beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Anyang beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 0-1 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.74 xG and FC Anyang 0.99 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ulsan Hyundai FC fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.10 / defence 0.99 against FC Anyang attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 33/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 55% | Draw 24% | FC Anyang 22%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a FC Anyang win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.