Pohang Steelers 0-3 Daejeon Citizen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Pohang Steelers at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pohang Steelers vs Daejeon Citizen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Pohang Steel Yard plays host to Pohang Steelers versus Daejeon Citizen in K League 1, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Saturday 15 February 2025 at 04:00 UTC.
Form
Pohang Steelers (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Pohang Steelers's home record at Pohang Steel Yard: 3W 2D 5L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Daejeon Citizen have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Daejeon Citizen's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Daejeon Citizen are 1.10 PPG clear of Pohang Steelers in recent K League 1 fixtures (2.00 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Pohang Steelers have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Daejeon Citizen in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Pohang Steelers lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Jul 2024, ended 2–1 with Pohang Steelers winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Pohang Steelers goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Daejeon Citizen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pohang Steelers 63% and Daejeon Citizen 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pohang Steelers 43% | Daejeon Citizen 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pohang Steelers 1.50 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pohang Steelers attack 0.964 / defence 0.960 | Daejeon Citizen attack 1.025 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.495 / away 1.232. Data: 33 Pohang Steelers games / 33 Daejeon Citizen games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 44% | Draw 25% | Daejeon Citizen 31%. Fair-value odds: Pohang Steelers 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Daejeon Citizen 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Pohang Steelers dominate the H2H record, yet Daejeon Citizen are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Pohang Steelers are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Daejeon Citizen (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pohang Steelers if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Pohang Steelers 60% | Daejeon Citizen 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pohang Steelers vs Daejeon Citizen | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Pohang Steel Yard • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Feb 2025, 04:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 44% | Draw 25% | Daejeon Citizen 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Pohang Steelers 1.50 / Daejeon Citizen 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Pohang Steelers attack 0.964 / def 0.960 | Daejeon Citizen attack 1.025 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.495 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Pohang Steelers (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Pohang Steelers xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Daejeon Citizen xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pohang Steelers vs Daejeon Citizen kick off?
Pohang Steelers vs Daejeon Citizen kicked off at 04:00 on Saturday 15 February 2025 at Pohang Steel Yard.
What was the final score in Pohang Steelers vs Daejeon Citizen?
Pohang Steelers 0 - 3 Daejeon Citizen.
Where is Pohang Steelers vs Daejeon Citizen being played?
The match is being played at Pohang Steel Yard.
What competition is Pohang Steelers vs Daejeon Citizen part of?
Pohang Steelers vs Daejeon Citizen is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Pohang Steelers vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our statistical model gives Pohang Steelers a 44% chance of winning, Daejeon Citizen a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Pohang Steelers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pohang Steelers vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Pohang Steelers and Daejeon Citizen will score (BTTS).
Will Pohang Steelers vs Daejeon Citizen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Daejeon Citizen?
Record (3 meetings): Pohang Steelers 2W | Draws 1 | Daejeon Citizen 0W.
What form are Pohang Steelers and Daejeon Citizen in?
Pohang Steelers (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Daejeon Citizen (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Pohang Steelers's attack rating (0.96) and Daejeon Citizen's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Daejeon Citizen's attack (1.02x) against Pohang Steelers's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pohang Steelers Win
44%
2.28
25%
3.93
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Pohang Steelers xG
Total xG
2.71
1.21
Daejeon Citizen xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
13%
7.65
7%
14.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.1 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pohang Steelers vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Pohang Steelers and Daejeon Citizen expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Pohang Steelers and 1.21 for Daejeon Citizen, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Pohang Steelers vs Daejeon Citizen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 76 outings, Pohang Steelers have picked up 1.54 PPG on a 30W 27D 19L record — D-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Daejeon Citizen's form line: 24W 27D 25L from 76 games, 1.30 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for Pohang Steelers against 1.30 for Daejeon Citizen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Pohang Steelers have posted 1.76 PPG from 38 outings (18W 13D 7L).
On the road, Daejeon Citizen have gone 8W 16D 14L from 38 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pohang Steelers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pohang Steelers are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Daejeon Citizen are on 1.30 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pohang Steelers have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Daejeon Citizen in 61%.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pohang Steelers
Current Season
Daejeon Citizen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pohang Steelers and Daejeon Citizen in coming into this match?
Pohang Steelers have gone 30W 27D 19L in their last 76 games (1.54 PPG), while Daejeon Citizen have gone 24W 27D 25L in their last 76 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pohang Steelers at home or Daejeon Citizen away?
Pohang Steelers's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pohang Steelers at home: 1.76 PPG; Daejeon Citizen away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Daejeon Citizen won 0-3 on 15 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pohang Steelers have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Daejeon Citizen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Pohang Steelers
2
Draws
3
Daejeon Citizen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Daejeon Citizen?
From 10 meetings on record, Pohang Steelers have won 5, Daejeon Citizen have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pohang Steelers and Daejeon Citizen last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when Daejeon Citizen 2-2 Pohang Steelers.
Who has won more matches between Pohang Steelers and Daejeon Citizen?
Pohang Steelers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pohang Steelers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Daejeon Citizen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pohang Steelers 58%, Daejeon Citizen 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Pohang Steelers) and 53% (Daejeon Citizen).
On the defensive side: Pohang Steelers keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Daejeon Citizen in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pohang Steelers home games / Daejeon Citizen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pohang Steelers play Daejeon Citizen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Pohang Steelers's games and 68% of Daejeon Citizen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pohang Steelers vs Daejeon Citizen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Pohang Steelers's recent games and 53% of Daejeon Citizen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pohang Steelers and Daejeon Citizen tend to score early?
Pohang Steelers have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Daejeon Citizen in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Daejeon Citizen run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Pohang Steelers.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daejeon Citizen beat Pohang Steelers 0-3 at Pohang Steel Yard, Regular Season - 1, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pohang Steelers 1.50 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.21 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Pohang Steelers fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Daejeon Citizen outscored their 1.21 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pohang Steelers attack 0.96 / defence 0.96 against Daejeon Citizen attack 1.02 / defence 1.04, drawn from 33/33 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pohang Steelers 44% | Draw 25% | Daejeon Citizen 31%, with Pohang Steelers to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Daejeon Citizen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pohang Steelers 43%, Daejeon Citizen 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pohang Steelers's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pohang Steelers 1.54 PPG, Daejeon Citizen 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daejeon Citizen win broke the near-deadlock. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Daejeon Citizen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.34 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.66 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.