🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Ulsan Hyundai FC (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Pohang Steelers face Ulsan Hyundai FC.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 6 as Pohang Steelers welcome Ulsan Hyundai FC to Pohang Steel Yard. Kick-off is set for Saturday 29 March 2025 at 07:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all K League 1 games this season, Pohang Steelers have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, Pohang Steelers have posted 3W 2D 5L at Pohang Steel Yard — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Ulsan Hyundai FC — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

When travelling in K League 1 this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Form points away from home here. Ulsan Hyundai FC's 2.40 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Pohang Steelers's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H Record

The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Ulsan Hyundai FC, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for Pohang Steelers.

The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2024, ended 0–2 with Ulsan Hyundai FC winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Data

Pohang Steelers trading profile (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).

Ulsan Hyundai FC trading profile (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pohang Steelers 63% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pohang Steelers 43% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Pohang Steelers 0.78 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pohang Steelers attack 0.795 / defence 0.987 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.039 / defence 0.876. League average goals — home 1.127 / away 1.182. Pohang Steelers's attack strength of 0.795 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 38 Pohang Steelers games / 38 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 23% | Draw 31% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 46%. Fair-value odds: Pohang Steelers 4.35 | Draw 3.23 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.17. Ulsan Hyundai FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.00 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pohang Steelers 60% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 30% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights